Nifty update for 14 October 2011

Nifty retained yesterdays top and closed at day's low. It was just a profit booking session and i dont see many institutional shorts but it is becoming very evident that crossing 5200 would be a hurdle and nifty has again proved that. Retail shorts might be there above 5100 levels and volatility index is not showing massive number of shorts at the top. It suggests you that any top above 5100 would be a level to square off the existing long positions and wait for another trigger to carry with fresh longs.It indicates a buy on dips upto 4970-5000 levels where the fresh buying has emerged and i would wait till that levels to be taken out on the downside. It would be a buy on dips market till these levels hold and on the upside it looks like capped at certain levels above 5100 ...If nifty gets some time for accumulation at 5000 levels it would be a good trigger for a fresh and relevant upmove other wise it would be a range bound market ahead but you could see stock specific actions especially in large caps. Nifty doesn't look weak on charts , though it can slip further to 5000 levels i would not neglect the possibility for Nifty to come back wit good volume till 4970 is taken out.