Nifty continued its upmove and it is expected to move up to 5950-70 which 78.6% retracement of the entire fall and i would not like to be a buyer at this level. As mentioned in the previous post i expected the upmove to continue till 5800 and i have liquidated all my long positions in nifty close to that level. DLF and HDFC bank gave a decent return in this current upmove and we could get the major chunk of this upmove. If we see the structure of nifty it has not turned into a bear market yet as it is some how holding 5500 levels on the downside. If we see the entire upmove we could see a V- shape recovery and these kind of recoveries will usually for top conformation because of the simple reason it is not attracting too many buyers. When we see the rollover data it is so poor and not much positions are getting added in the equity market too. After a decent run it wont fall that fast and lot of people would be waiting on the side lines to be a buyer. 5800-5820 would be a decent support zone in the short run and after this run up it is expected to give range bound sessions between 5700-5970 in the coming two weeks. Cyclically May is not a good month for equity markets and if you see the base metals in the commodity market they are still in a downtrend. Thus those short term bounce backs were helpful for metals stocks to rebound along with banking stocks and that was the reason for this sharp recovery. If we see the nifty cycles we are close to a date were we can top out in the near future close to the end of this month.
