Sunday, March 4, 2012

Nifty weekly update 05-09 March 2012

We had a range bound session in the past week and as i had discussed the heavy premium had to get reduced by squaring off the existing positions.The range is still tight between 5330-5440 . It exactly held our upper range of 5440 on the upside on Friday. As a trader i would be initiating a long trade only above these resistance zones.We could see some interesting positive moves in ICICI and Jindal steel and it would be good if it could sustain the positive momentum.Thus wait for a break out for a better trade and in the shorter term and i would maintain my bias towards upside only till 5330 is taken out on the downside.As long as the lower levels hold nifty could test the upper levels of 5625 once again but the mentioned stocks should first give a reversal on the upside. SBI also has to clear 2300-2325 (futures) zone for a journey towards 2400 because lot of short positions are still lying at these levels. On the long side if i would take a trade if it could convincingly cross 5440-5450 zone for a target of 5600 levels but that would be my exit point as the correction is due for the previous vertical up move. On the downside if 5330 levels are taken out then also i'm getting a trade on the short side for at least 100 points. Thus the current scenario explains that it should not be an intra day trade if it breaks out and the trade should be on the positional side. As per time cycle nifty could confirm a top close to March 20-21 and if there is a rally it should be happen within the first 10 days of April.
Lets keep the range as 5330-5440 and the break of the range should be considered as a trade for targets of 5240 and 5600 respectively .