1. S&P
2. J P Morgan
Nifty came down till 5750 and gave a bounce from those levels to 6000 and it is showing lot of buying support at lower levels. Bank nifty has completed a faster retracement as compared to nifty and yes i am seeing some kind of a bull market scenario.
How can it be a bull market.
1. Midcap and Small cap indices are giving signs of reversals and making higher tops compared to nifty in the past 3-4 months.
2. Many of the midcap PSU banking stocks are turning their heads up for a major up move obviously some major moving average cross overs over the past few months.
3. In the past one year nifty has come 4 times close to 6300 while it came down only till 5100 and that too only once.
4. EURO/USD might consolidate in the short term but maintaining their bullish sentiment for the
rest of the year.
5. India VIX close to 28-30 where market normally forms a bottom.
Words of caution.
The prediction can go wrong mainly because of two reasons
1. US markets giving a major correction , given the current situation and the debt ceiling issue has to be solved for some kind of consolidation with a downside cushion at 1600 .
1650-60 are levels to be watched for
1650-60 are levels to be watched for
2. USD/INR reversing the trend on the upside which i see a very low probability in the given conditions.
3. The premium in nifty futures has to come down for a better opportunity to be a buyer, not ruling out a consolidation phase in October.
I have attached charts of JP morgan and S&P 500 for the purpose of correlation.
Anyway as of now it is not far from seeing a new high in nifty by early 2014.
