Nifty update for 11-June-2013

Nifty broke the previous low and it could be heading towards 5770-5800 where the 61.8% retracement of the whole rally from 5500 levels.As i said in the previous post about nifty i would not be selling nifty below the lows of 5850-70 and would be waiting for a buying opportunity.Among the bigger names start with JP where where close to 62 would be a decent buying opportunity for this high beta name and
wait for other stocks to consolidate. I would expect a stock like BHEL to find a double bottom close to 175 zone and it is worth trying to  buy this stock close the the previous bottom as the retest is happening after a long time.It is better to search for those stocks which are finding a bottom when nifty is at 5800 levels. If we see the largecap banking space SBI is approaching the previous bottom of 1950 which can offer a decent bounce back, reliance is yet to reach 760-770 levels.Volatility index is showing the fear of traders by hitting  new highs with the rise in dollar.I would say this is a positive factor for nifty as spike in the volatility index is a little too much  for the market at this stage. We could see 5800 put building maximum number of positions and 5900 call was adding lot of positions in todays  session too.Nifty is following a bullish technical pattern of ending diagonal which would not give a consolidation stage and would instead give a V shape recovery from the downside.Thus wait for nifty to stop falling and let the mentioned stocks reach the respective support zones  with a discount in nifty futures and that would be the best time to go long.

Dollar move to 58 zone as predicted on 03 - March - 2013

Dollar has finally surpassed the previous high of 57.30 and it is trading higher close to 58 zone. I had written a something about the upward momentum in dollar 3rd March 2013(search dollar in the blog , u'll get it!!!)The bullish stand in dollar is justified by the movement in dollar index too. If we observe the dollar index we could see that Dollar/INR was rising when the dollar index was not rising and the correction in dollar index seems to be over and it would give a long term bullish view for dollar. It can be in the last leg of up move to 59+ as the dollar index can move up after the current correction. Thus in this move dollar index too would offer the support for dollar and it can be dangerous for who are short in dollar. It gives a dirty picture of the Indian economy along with the rise in crude oil prices and the equity market investors should be a little bit cautious at this juncture