Nifty update for 16th December 2011

A smart pull back from our 52 low zone of 4640 !!Does this mark the end of a bear market?I doubt so.In the near term , yes it was a smart pull back of 100+ points from the days low and Reliance led the rally.At the same time dollar index surpassed an important level of 80 after an accumulation of 3 months thus it should be considered as a serious break out on the upside.We have a big event for tomorrow and ie; RBI's credit policy. Thus let Nifty first fill our previous daily range of 4640-4860.We have lot of short positions accumulated at 4830-4860 zone and that needs to get cleared first.As December had always been a positive month for Nifty due to pulling out of cash by FII's they might do the same this time too, and Nifty has to unfold that. We have 3 important time cycles dates in December and first week of January. December 21 is a seasonal date,December 24th is a moon date, first week of January is always famous for major tops and bottoms.Thus Nifty should form an interim bottom before 24th Of December (as i said in my previous posts 21st Dec too is an important day for a turn around), let it be today's or below that. Thus the picture would get a clarity if we combine it with these important dates. Today's rally was primarily due to some profit booking happened in currency futures. As said in the previous post a sharp pull back rally followed after that sharp cut.As we could see from the turn over data retailers have pumped in some money but FII's are still pulling out the money.4640-4860 could still be a good range for Nifty.