Nifty weekly update 30 April - 4 May 2012

The past week saw nifty holding 5150 levels on the downside and the volatility index also saw a negative close. A short covering rally to 5300+ cannot be ruled out as long as the mentioned support levels hold. All the major stocks gave a decent move on the downside and some of the stocks like DLF and Hindalco are close to their 52 week lows. If there is a short covering rally these 52 week low zones should hold and can give a rally on the upside. I did mention an upside cap of 5260 on friday's post and it gave a u-turn from 5250 levels. Thus 5260 would act as an upside cap where lot of short positions are lying and above this zone we could see a small bounce to 5300+ levels. Even if there is a bounce back on the cards the structure of almost all the stocks are extremely negative as the rally could only take them to form one more lower top. Thus the trend reversal on the upside could happen only above 5350 - 5360 with good volume. The downside bet is still on as the volatility index is expected to rise in the short run. If there is a short term rally on the upside the volatility index can come down to 16-15 and it would wipe off the premiums in put options resulting in lower implied volatility.Thus the rally should have enough strength with some consolidation happening at some point of time as the correlation between stocks and nifty could not be seen.Lets keep the range of 5150 - 5260 and consider a breakout on the upside as a short term bounce.

Short covering possible (above previous high)

DLF, Hindalco, Auropharma and some major banking stocks

Downward move possible (below previous low)

Orchid chemicals 

Nifty update for 27 - April - 2012

It was a 'peaceful' expiry with no danger at either bull or bear camp. Both 5200 call and put writers got enough time to book their profits.Nifty is really trying for a recovery but lack of good news from the domestic front is still a concern for the momentum on the upside. As said in the earlier post SBI, ABAN, Bank of india were on sellers radar and we could see some short covering happening in ACC and l& t. Volatility index would be the real danger for nifty in the coming series as it is making new lows every day and the volatility of puts are getting lower every day. These kind of scenario's are very rare at the bottom and option premiums are still cheaper. We could see sharp whipsaws in the may series and would definitely be a traders market. April would have been one of the toughest months for equity and futures traders and it was a superb one for options writers due to the tight range. Some of the stocks are trying for a short covering rally but  major banking stocks are making new lows which would remain as a worry. Thus a short covering rally can be expected only above 5260 / 5270 levels (as per April futures it was 5240 as said in the previous posts.)We could see some huge addition of volume in 4900 put and the picture would be clear only if it gives a bigger move.Lets keep a range of 5150 - 5260. 

Stocks with positive bias ( Long accumulation )

Sun pharma

Short covering possible

Bombay dyeing, Bharat forge, IDBI, Kotak bank

Negative bias (below previous low )


Jsw steel , Canara bank, Sail , NTPC

Nifty update for 26 - April - 2012

Nifty gave up the hope for a short covering rally a made a new low close to 5150 . It got well resisted in the mentioned resistance zone of 5240 where lot of long positions got squared off and it is evident that lot of short positions are lying there. This zone needs to get cleared for any short covering rally to happen. The volatility index is surprisingly not rising above 20 and it looks like a very dangerous sign for nifty to rise in the near future.

During the end of last bull market in 2010 when the market was at the top India VIX was trading at close to 15-16 levels and we are near those levels at 5200 levels in Nifty !Thus if nifty rises due to short covering or long accumulation the volatility index will definitely decrease and from there it would start rising again. In the coming months nifty would be very volatile giving sharp whipsaws so that the volatility should rise. Stocks like SBI ,Bank of India , ABAN, ACC look weak and l & t could see some short covering happening in the final hour of the trade. Dollar/ Inr would still be a buy on dips close to 52 levels and crude has started climbing up again. If we observe the commodities market we could that copper is still rising with good amount of short covering but a rising crude will still be a big concern. Lets keep a range of 5100 - 5240 and consider a small short covering rally on the break of the upper band of 5240.

Nifty futures held the support zone of 5180 (as said in the previous post) and gave a stop close to our resistance zone of 5240 where lot of long positions got liquidated on monday. Volatility index closed on a negative note indicating some short covering happening at lower levels. Though the premium was rising marginally it indicates short covering than long accumulation. Short covering rallies happen in every down trend and there is nothing surprising about that. Though nifty futures held the support zones many large cap stocks did make new lows. Stocks like L & T and Axis bank look the weakest of all as it made a new low in today’s trading session. As the fall happened on monday traders have got enough time to write 5300 call and that would still remain as an advantage for option writers. Thus any close below 5300 levels or close to that might be still a weaker sign for nifty till it breaks out above the previous high of 5350-5360 zones. Thus if there is a short covering rally play it with an intraday perspective and no need to carry those long positions as it won’t be sufficient for a break out. On the downside levels of 5050 – 5040 are still open as the structure of some major stocks got destroyed and they need some time for accumulation for an upside rally.

If there is a short covering rally in nifty these stocks would likely to lead (above the previous high)

Lic housing, Century textiles, Orchid chemicals, HUL

Negative Bias (below previous low)

Ultra tech cement , ACC , Bank of India

Nifty update for 24 - April - 2012

Nifty broke our support zone of 5240 zone and as said in the previous post we could see long positions got squared off at a faster rate. We could see volatility index jumping to new highs above 20 which resulted in an increase in option premiums. The structure looks weak and it is a trend line break out on the downside and the expected levels on the downside would be 5050 – 5040. It would not be a sudden break down and it can take some time. We are at an important support zone of 5180 levels and if it breaks it is logical to think about 5050 levels. Though the turnover data does not show any portfolio unwinding some of the major stocks are below the support zones like Axis bank, ICICI bank and L & T. On the upside any bounce would be well resisted at 5230-5250 zones as nifty might need some time for accumulation. We had discussed about the weakness of bank nifty in the previous reports too and that is the real danger for nifty.

Stocks with negative bias (below previous low)

Aban , ABB , ICICI bank 

Nifty weekly post 23 - 27 April 2012

(Please read the previous weekly post 16-20 April too )
Though the structure of Nifty futures got destroyed in the see saw trade that we saw on friday, it managed to close to 5300 level (much below the resistance zone of 5330). It is forming a triple top around 5360 region which is a very bad signal to go for long positions. On friday's post i did mention about the volatility index,its effects on trading and we could see a considerable uptick in volatility in the previous trade. These kinds of sessions would be well utilized by options writers as they are getting some extra premium in terms of time value. If we could see levels of 15-16 in volatility index ( talking about India VIX ) before nifty reaching 6000 levels these kinds of trades would again happen and options traders would have a definite edge over the retail traders.Though it made a low of 5000 if we look at the charts we could see levels of 5230-5240 as the low where there are lots of buyers are still there and this would be an important support zone to be watched. As mentioned in the previous post bank nifty is one major index that does not allow nifty to catch up the upward momentum and all the banking stocks don't look good at all. On the upside nifty is yet to break the previous week's high and till that high is broken nifty would slowly come to the lower end of the channel which is placed at around 5180 - 5200 levels. If there is a valid breakout it has to happen with good volume and it did not happen yet. In the commodities market copper has really given a good short covering rally but Indian equity market could not gain anything from that.It is evident that nifty is waiting for some good news from the results season and the bigger range bound market is still intact. If you are options trader this is the best way to make some money but nifty is giving little chance to futures trades. Going forward 5230-5240 would be the stop for any long positions as lot of long positions can get squared off below this zone and it would really be a stock specific market as nifty is not showing any reversal till 5350-5360 levels are taken out on the upside. Thus we can keep a range of 5230 - 5360.

As per time cycle a fall below 5200 will make things difficult for nifty to catch up any momentum till around 5-6 th of May (see the attached chart). If you are an options trader  if nifty cracks below 5230 - 5240 go for bull call spread by first selling your out of the money calls and wait for a buy trigger to buy the at the money call.Thus execute the strategy in different steps as one can increase the spread between the bought and sold calls.

(Execute the trade only if you are aware about the risks involved in options trading)

Stocks with negative bias (below previous day's low)

YES bank , DLF , JP associates 

Nifty update for 20-April-2012

Nifty finally broke out of 5330 levels but with lot of 'injuries'. Though it closed at the days high i could not see any major stock supporting that strong closing. Thus nifty can just give movements on the upside at a slow pace and as i said in the previous posts there are heavy writing happening in 5400 call. If we observe it carefully we could see that nifty futures crossing many hurdles but as the volatility is not on the rise it would not affect the 5400 call premium. At the preset scenario we could see nifty moving upwards after one or two dips but the pace at which it moves on the upside is really questionable as it is giving options writers plenty of opportunities to utilize the extra premium. India VIX is just 2-3 points away from the least volatile scenario and as the best case nifty would retest the highs of 5600 but i would not see a sudden move on the upside after that.If you are not an options trader it is better to leave nifty and concentrate on stocks. If nifty is again going up volatility index would touch its lower zone may be around 15-16. After a certain point it is impossible for nifty to go up because the options writers will not get enough premiums to write options.The target on the upside would still remain as 5470 levels but the pace it would attain that level or anything above that would be questionable. It can be in a bigger range bound market of 5200-5600 and that can sort out the issue of volatility.Bank nifty is still an under performer and that would be only index that could give some hope on the upside but all the banking stocks are seem to be dead. Trade in limited number of stocks and when ever you are getting stuck just get out of the market and wait for a better opportunity.

Stocks with positive bias (above previous high)

Biocon , Sail (above 100), mcleod russel, lic housing, Coal India

Negative bias (below previous low)

Allahabad bank
Yes bank
DLF

Nifty update for 19 - April - 2012

Though nifty crossed 5330 it gave a weak closing and thus it cant be considered as a valid break out. It was not a sell off from the top because there was no reduction in the premium and the volatility index was closed on a negative note. As the open interest was comparatively lesser than the other days it was evident that it was not a sell off and just reflected the weakness in the world markets. If it continues to go down we need to watch for 5230-5240 levels as lot of buying has happened at that level. Bank nifty did not contribute much on the positive side and that still remains a worry to break out on the upside. If it has to break out on the upside it has to happen with in a day or two as 5400 calls are gaining lot of volume day by day(it indicates lot of call writing happening at this strike) .As of now it is still a wait and watch game for a trending market. The bias is still on the positive side just because even if nifty falls 50-100 points stocks would go back to their previous support zones and if it gets some more time to add buyers that would have a positive effect. If it is a heavy fall lot of buyers has to get trapped on the wrong side and it has not happened yet. Thus a strong closing is needed for a meaningful break out but i would like to take a chance on the long side only if the closing is much above the lower zone. Dollar/INR is still stuck at 51.80-52.00 zone and it has to cross 52 levels for any upside move.If it is crossing 52 levels on the upside it is telling you to wait for some more time to go long in equity markets. Lets keep a range of 5230 - 5360.

Nifty update for 18 - April - 2012

It was really a good day for the bulls as they are about the win the battle above the resistance zone above 5330 levels. Nifty futures held the support zones and closed at the days high and mid caps lead the show than the bigger names.As i said in the previous post stocks like SBI and ICICI bank came off from the day's high and it would have been a confusing trade. Though Uco bank and Andhra bank did not give much move on the upside IRB infra led the move from the front rising 4% and it was a decent intra day trade on the long side. For nifty futures 5230-5240 zone is the level that has to be watched as some long positions got accumulated from that zone and as long as these buyers are there nifty could break 5330 on the upside.In the commodities market copper is holding the low zone of 408-410 zone and though a long accumulation could not be seen there would be some upside as long as these levels are held.In the equity market volatility data shows lot of short covering than long accumulation and i expect the long accumulation to start above the mentioned upside cap. Though there was not much of long accumulation in nifty we could see some long build up happening in stocks like l&t , SBI, Canara bank and Axis bank. On the upside it is logical to be on the long side above 5330 but i would like to avoid  bigger banking names and concentrate on mid caps Lets keep a range of 5230 - 5330 and break on the upside could be a break out trade.

How to choose stocks if there is an upside move 

My list includes Pnb , Hdil, Voltas L&t Ifci  and R power. Among these stocks as a positional trader i would like to take one from the bigger names (one among pnb and l&t) and 2 from the smaller ones. Though PNB can come in a buy i would like to avoid the most obvious banking names.The pattern of l&t looks much better , the volume and open interest data were much convincing. If i need a high beta one i would go with HDIL and R power to have a complete sector diversification. Thus it is up to the traders what to choose and when to enter. If it is a good gap up opening you can go with ones which are at comfortable buying levels and i would like to take these as positional trades just because if it crosses 5400 on the upside on any day i would not like to add any fresh positions into the current portfolio and would like to hold it .On the downside 5190 - 5200 is the important level to watch for nifty futures as the downside risk would be open below that. Thus if there is any rally on the upside and not getting any opportunity to get in , 5230-5240 would be the dip where i would add my long positions. 

       View on Nifty                                              Expected levels                Trend reversal 

Neutral - Positive above 5330                                  5470                                   5180

Long term  ( Positive )                                               5625                                   4950

Nifty update for 17 - April - 2012

Nifty held the previous low zone of 5190 levels and closed at the days high. We have an important event on the 17th of April and RBI policy decisions have always made a great impact on the market.We could see all banks rallying on the upside expecting a cut in key rates. The structure of bank nifty is actually much better than that of nifty for an up move but nifty still has to prove it by crossing 5330 levels. We could see a battle between the short sellers from 5300 levels and buyers from 5200 levels and it would be really interesting to see who would emerge as the winner.As per turn over data it was one of the worst days with lower turnover and FII's were on the sell side. The volume data shows some short covering happening at lower levels but long accumulation is yet to happen in many sectors though banking is an exception. These kind of days would be a little tough for retail traders to play with.If a rate cut is there ,though it has been discounted it would be a positive factor for the market but nifty needs to cross some major levels on the upside for any break out. Thus if there is any positive momentum in the market go with smaller stocks like IRB infra , Andhra bank and UCO bank on the long side as the risk/ reward ratio would be in favor than playing SBI or ICICI bank.If the news is affecting the market in a negative way go for long straddle with at the money options. It is good to see nifty holding some major support zones irrespective of the negative news flow and it needs to continue this for any move on the upside. Thus lets keep 5190 - 5330 as the trading range and break out of the range could most probably be a trend deciding one.

Nifty weekly update 16-20 April 2012

(Please go through the charts after reading the post as it would give a much more clear picture)
The week ahead would be a tough one for the bulls to establish their mark on the upside. Nifty tried its best to overcome the challenges but it got resisted at our upper band of 5330 as mentioned in the previous post. In the shorter term we can clearly see a lower top lower bottom formation ad short term trend still remain bearish or with an optimistic note we can say a bigger range bound market with a negative bias.The major worry would be copper making lower lows and apart from one short covering rally it is a huge sell off even at lower levels.As i kept on repeating the relevance of base metals in the equity market it once again gave a leading signal before the sell off in Indian equity. The sell off was clearly due to short selling as it resulted in a positive volatility index with a reduction in premium and rise in open interest.On the upside 5330 still remains a key level to watch for as lot of short positions are lying there. Lets keep a range of 5100 - 5270.
Decoding the chart !!! 
 As you can see in the first chart nifty is likely to be in a range of 5040 - 5300 with a considerable amount of resistance at 5400. Thus the only hope for nifty would be a very favorable policy from RBI and otherwise i dont expect it to cross before 24th of April. On the downside if it breaks down there can be a short covering rally close to 5040 - 5050 levels and thus it can possibly make a trading range of 5040 - 5300 and in a nutshell the chances are less for an expiry close to 5400.
Second chart - Some of the important dates are mentioned in this chart .As per this chart we had a prediction made in the final week of feb 2012 that a rally would be there close to the first week of April. We had a rally from 5130 - 5400 levels in the first week of April.If we observe the chart we can see that nifty made a low before every rally in an interval of 90-99 days and the major trend line angle acted as a support zone for all rallies. When ever this angle is breached we could see a huge sell off as you can see in the chart. Thus if the low is breached the maximum level of one leg of fall can be till 4950 levels as lot of Fibonacci  levels are getting merged there. If it has to happen i would expect that in the month of May and in the final week of April . As of now the bull market is intact and we should wait for good buying opportunities from the downside thus lets wait and watch the game in the coming week.
Third chart - Major support zones as per Fibonacci numbers.

Nifty update for 13 - April - 2012

As said in the previous post nifty futures held the trading range of 5190 – 5330 and got resisted at upper levels.

Though bank nifty was very much supportive for an upside move nifty could not utilize the momentum to take it above 5300.In the commodities market crude oil is again on its way upto 5400 levels and it can adversely affect the upside momentum in nifty. Volatility data is showing some short covering and long accumulation happening at lower levels but traders are suspicious about the up move and lack of volume could result in a range bound market with a negative bias.Thus it is a market to cover your short positions at lower levels and wait for better opportunities. On the upside 5330 is a key resistance area and an upmove above this can take nifty futures to 5400 zone.Short covering rally in copper could help the equity market for short term gains.Thus as a trader going long in nifty futures is advised only above 5330 levels. In a shorter time frame the downside risks are still intact and traders are advised to trade with strict stop losses. If it is a huge gap up opening above 5330 i would like to get into some stocks which gives me better trades.All the shares mentioned in yesterdays post have given decent up move in todays trade. Lets keep a range of 5190 - 5330 and consider a break above 5330 as a break on the upside 

        Stocks with positive bias (only above previous days high)

        SBI, Axis bank, Auro pharma, Canara bank, UCO bank, Rolta

        Stocks with negative bias (only below previous day’s low)

        Polaris, Union bank, Reliance capital

Nifty update for 12 - April -2012

Nifty futures made a low close to 5200 levels which is considered to be an important psychological support zone. Though the immediate downside target lies at 5150-5130 levels it is advised to cover short positions in 5200-5250 as said in the previous posts. Short term trend reversal will happen if nifty is able to cross 5400 on the upside. Any short term rallies would be sold into keeping 5400 as the major resistance zone. Though nifty made a new low bank nifty held yesterday’s low and it suggests some short covering happening in banking stocks.This could lead to a short term up move in banking stocks ahead of the RBI policy. An increase in premium with good open interest and a slightly positive volatility index suggest short covering close to 5200 levels and some long accumulation at lower levels. On any short covering rally 5330 would act as the first resistance point and a sustained move above this level is necessary for further upmove. SBI and Kotak bank,Axis bank are likely to lead the upmove if there is a short covering rally. Huge sell off in base metals especially in copper would be a major worry for the equity market to move up. If nifty futures takes out today’s low of 5200 L & T would be a good trading opportunity on the short side.Lets keep the same range of 5190 - 5330 as it showed some respect to the lower levels close to 5190-5200.

           

                                                                                Trend reversal

  

 Short term trend     ▼       5130 – 5150                                 above 5400

 Long term trend    ▲            5625                                         below 4950

Nifty update for 11 - April - 2012

Though it ended on a flat note and we could see some short covering activity long accumulation is not happening in nifty futures. As of now the immediate short term target remains as 5150 levels on nifty futures but play the short positions with caution. Many short positions have got squared off in today and the breach of yesterdays low should be considered as addition of some fresh short positions. Thus wait for a good accumulation pattern to go long on stocks.As i had indicated in previous day's post copper should stop falling for the metal index to be back in track and till then the equity market looks weak. The turn over data shows some long unwinding happening in major stocks and this could be the starting of sell off by institutions  If the situation is like this many stocks would be available at cheaper rates especially banking stocks like ICICI bank and SBI. Lets keep a range of 5190 - 5330 and long accumulation is not advisable at lower levels and investors should wait for a confirmation signal for any up move. 

Nifty update for 10 - April - 2012

Nifty futures did give a closing around our lower band of 5250 and the short term down trend is intact. In a larger frame work i would still go with an accumulation pattern rather than negative trading set up. Thus wait for markets to settle down let traders start building up long positions. As i said in the previous post the only one good thing that we could do is to square off the short positions around 5200-5250 and wait for some clarity regarding the trend. It could move to the much talked about support zone of 5150 levels but as smart traders one should take out some profits close to the immediate support zones as mentioned in yesterday's post.
 The down fall in commodities market especially in copper makes the picture a little bit dangerous in the shorter frame work. Volatility data shows some short build up in today's session instead of long unwinding and be careful of sharp whipsaws on both sides. As an investor i would like to put some money in Reliance industries at this point of time and as i said in the previous week's post .The accumulation process could range from 630-730.If i am a trader i would take off some profits in my short positions and wait for an entry point for a short covering rally. 5400 levels could be considered as the reversal on the upside and till those levels are taken out i would  not be a positional buyer. Lets keep a range of 5190 - 5330.

Nifty update 09 - 13 April - 2012

Nifty futures got resisted at our upper band of 5400-5410 and is moving in the downward channel to 5200 zone once again. In the shorter time frame it is forming lower tops and lower bottoms and a break above this zone could be seen as a good reversal on the upside. It is taking some time to form the base and a bigger range bound would be inevitable for a good up move. Thus it would be good for nifty if it takes its own time to break on the upside. On the down side 5200 - 5250 would be the area to cover the short positions and i would like to create any long positions only above the mentioned resistance zone.In a range bound market like this we should get the tops and bottoms to take a trade and as we got the top at 5400 levels it would be easy to be on the short side for smaller gains.On a larger frame work the base forming pattern is intact and no market in the world can be trending all the time and if it spends most of its time in a range bound session it is a clear indication of a bullish setup. Cooling off of crude oil would be a big relief for the equity markets .As i mentioned in the previous post 5330-5320 is a key area to watch as lot of long accumulation has happened in that region and nifty futures never broke out of that zone on friday.Thus squaring off of long positions might lead to a clear sell off but consider any major fall as an opportunity to do some value buying. Lets keep a range of 5250 5410 as the weekly range. On the upside it would be a break out only above 5400-5410 region. 

Nifty update for 04- April - 2012

It hit our upper band of 5400-5410 and closed below today's high. We could see some options writing activity happening in 5500 and 5600 options and some profit booking in nifty futures. The volatility index closed the session on a negative note and thus we could see some profit booking happening instead of short build up.
 As the trading days are less options writers would make use of the extra premium in this range bound session. We could see some serious profit booking happening in stocks too , especially the banking sector stocks. On the way ahead 5400-5410 would be a crucial level for nifty futures and we should see some increase in the premium with a negative volatility data for some positive move in the market. As predicted in the end of February we had a decent rally in the first week of the April series and the rest of the move could be treated as extensions of this rally.On the downside 5330-5320 would be the important support zone to watch out for.If it is a break out on the upside we are getting close to the important resistance zone and as a safer bet as i said in yesterday's post i would like to take off some profits and wait for a better opportunity to get in. As a short term investor we should wait for better opportunities to get in than to participate in a trade in the upper range. If we take the larger picture it is still in a bigger range bound market within 5200 - 5500 range but in a strong base building process for a smarter bull run.Thus the major advantage of this base building process would be some of the major stocks would get enough time for a strong foundation to build up. We have been talking about lot many stocks over the past few days including yes bank, axis bank , tata steel and reliance (as a short term investment) and all have given decent returns within a shorter time period.As an investor it would be a game for a slightly longer horizon and lets wait for another dips for any fresh accumulation.Lets keep the range pf 5290 - 5410. 

Nifty update for 03 - April - 2012

Nifty had a range bound session with a positive bias. The equity market turnover shows some profit booking at higher levels but every dip was being bought during the entire session. A negative close of volatility index and the open interest data shows some long accumulation is happening at nifty futures at 5300 levels too. On the upside 5400-5410 can be used to exit the long positions. It does not mean that nifty would come down after that but as we have initiated the positions from much lower levels it is better to take off  some profits so that we can get some other good time to reenter. Even if you book profits in nifty there would be some stocks which would be offering some trades on the long side and it includes HDFC bank and TCS as both are entering into a fresh buying mode. Though HDFC bank can be considered as a strong stock TCS might get into the positive side due to some short covering. A good rally in copper would be a very big positive factor for nifty especially the metal stocks and thus consider this as a decent rally in the current short term range bound market with some limited upside close to 5500 levels. Thus if i square off my trades close to 5400-5410 i would wait for a clarity of trend for any further up move. On the downside there would be lot of buying interest coming close to 5300-5290 zone .Lets keep a range of 5250 - 5410 and no need to create any positions on the break out.

Nifty weekly update 02-06 April 2012

Nifty had a smart rally on friday and lot many short positions got covered above the mentioned levels of 5250 and gave a close above the important psychological level of 5300.As i mentioned one could see good addition of long positions in nifty futures below 5200 but most of the stocks have moved as a result of short covering. In the previous post i had mentioned about making long positions in Canara bank and TATA steel and both gave a combined return of more than 8% on an intraday basis.It still might have some more steam left till 5400 - 5410. Any dips close to 5200-5230 levels can attract more buying as there would be lot of buyers waiting on the sidelines especially in stocks. Cooling off of crude was a big relief for the equity markets and it has made an upper ceiling around 5400 levels.Among the major stocks SBI is still a weaker stock but Axis bank and YES bank could be the next big movers in the banking sector. Lot of stocks are yet to recover from the lows and thus we can expect a range bound market after this rally and if you are a nifty trader exit at the tops. On the downside watch levels of 5200-5230 as lot of fresh buying could happen. Lets keep a range of 5410 - 5230 as the weekly range.