Nifty update for Dec 23 - 27 2013

Nifty held 6150 zone and as i mentioned in the previous post apart from 6200 put we could not see any build up any strike on the put side. We could see India VIX settling close to 16 zone which was good sign for bullish sentiments in the market and the longs should be cautious once it comes below 15 where the IV's of options become very low and buying options would be benefiting more than selling options. Nifty demands much more time to take out the previous highs and we need to give it some time for buyers to accumulate stocks than jumping in for new highs.ICICI bank and Bank of Baroda can be top picks for this bounce back and see this as a bounce back rather than a major move. As mentioned 20-24 Dec can be crucial date for a major base and the rally might happen in Jan and don't expect it to happen immediately. ITC is another decent pick from the defensive pack. It has corrected well and i would expect the stock to rally to 330-335 levels with a stop below 309. We could see some build up happening in 5900,6000 puts of Jan and 6600 call in the whole month of Dec and the range can be a little more wider and it is good to see that market is not breaking below 6150. It can be a major support zone in the coming days too that can  give a trend deciding move in the medium term.As per options data there can be some stiff resistance points close to 6350-6370 zone and it can be assumed that the long positions build up has happened in Jan futures and 6150 can be the stop for all long positions.

Nifty update for 13-20 Dec 2013

Nifty maintains its weaker position as mentioned in the previous post, small cap and midcap indices have completed a 5 wave upmove in the daily charts and it is expected to give an ABC correction in the days to come. S&P is at a crucial juncture close to the mentioned zone of 1775-1780  which can give a 10-12 % correction from the current levels. Bank of India is one stock that give a correction of 6-8% to 197-200 zone in the near future and bank nifty can drop to 11100-200 zone in the current series. Dec 20-24 can be crucial dates as all news flows would be factored in close to those dates and ideal for a straddle position in at the money options close to those dates.6200 put had seen decent build up in the entire series and we coul see some heavy call writing happening in 6200 and 6300 calls. This data suggests the upside cap of 6350-6380 and the technical picture is also pointing towards 6350 - 60 levels. Thus 6400 can be a little bit distant dream as we might probably break 6200 zone soon. As of now we could not see any major build up apart from 6200 put and the downside picture would be clear regarding the build up in other strikes.Thus midcap and small cap names can give some major corrective moves than banking as they have already corrected from their highs. Wait for buying opportunities only when the market settles down 

Nifty update 12-Dec-2013

Nifty is almost done with the short term and it went close to the medium term target of 6500 once and reversed from there. There would some short term corrections but the lower range has clearly shifted from 5750 to 6000-6100 in the medium term perspective. One should be cautious about the US market which is on the verge of a medium term correction but Hangseng should give some support close to 23k levels.Thus these news flows are not good for nifty but the index is almost ready to outperform without any major ones. It is time to exit from private sector banking names like ICICI bank, Axis bank and auto biggie Maruti and time to search for some better names. 6400 call got written in a range of 75-85 and this could act as a stiff resistance area and even if nifty gives a bounce 6470-6480 could still be a safer zone for these options writers.There is a lot of time for a major correction in nifty and bank nifty has a decent support zone close to 11500 and i dont expect it to break this zone soon.Look out for 1775-1780 levels in S&P as these levels could initiate a major sell off in U S markets. Bank nifty is most likely to spend 1 month or more in a channel of 11200-12400 and the month is looking like a range bound month with 6150-6450 as the broader range for the rest of the month.There is nothing left in nifty except a throw back to 6400+ levels once more in Dec. The overall view remains bullish as it is still maintaining a higher top higher bottom formation but wait for good buying opportunities rather than going with the crowd 

Nifty update 04-Dec-2013

Nifty is giving range bound sessions and as said 20-24 Dec would be key dates for deciding major moves in the indices.Stocks have performed much better than nifty and our mentioned portfolio of stocks are doing decent enough in this range bound market. Market breadth was positive in favor of advancing counters and we could see this as a good sign of bull market. As mentioned S&P has completed a rising wedge (a bearish pattern) which could have a negative effect on other markets too so it is wise to take care of your long positions. Nifty is moving in a consolidation phase rather than a corrective one.Volatility index is giving an uptick ahead of the state polls and one could see some major moves are happening in the index options.We could see some writing happening in 6100 put and 6400 call and it could be the shorter range of market for the short term and punters might have written a combined premium of around 190-200 points premium which is quite huge. Thus wait for the premium to reduce and traders might shift to other strikes soon.It is better to avoid options trades as this moment as trades might get stuck up in trades.

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