Global Markets outlook

It has been a while that i have posted something about the global markets. As nifty is at a crucial juncture it is wise to have a look into other markets too. I have posted the charts of S&P and Hangseng which influences nifty a lot.Both these markets are in an uptrend and close to the previous tops. S&P could rally upto 1750 without much difficulty with a decent support close to 1650 and 1600 levels. These are good support zones from it got lot of buying interest.In a nutshell these are trend deciding levels for U S markets because it would be a lower top lower bottom formation below these zones.The CBOE VIX is not showing any major upmove so it can still hover around 13.5 - 16 for a month or so. Dollar index is ready for the upmove and that is the only worrying factor for equity markets all around the world.The reversal for Hangseng would be only below 22700 levels which is quite far as of now and these uptrends are intact as of now. Thus before shouting for sell calls in nifty lets have an understanding about the globe and one should be watchful for any reversal for these markets so that we can initiate sell signals too. As of now even if nifty corrects dont expect a major break down move and i expect it to correct only in an ABC pattern. The chartists say "As long as it is maintaining a higher top and higher bottom the trend is intact"

Nifty update for 18- Sep - 2013

Nifty tested the support zone once again close to 5820-25 and bounced back sharply from those lows.The volatility index ended on a negative note and the premium in nifty futures was moving at a steady level for past 2-3 trading sessions. It indicates people are still bullish on nifty and we could not see any major short buildup because of the mispriced put options. The options table shows decent amount of put writing happening at lower levels and even if it breaks on the downside a bounce back could be expected.On the upside traders got enough opportunity to write 6000 calls during the past 3-4 days and they have utilized it well thus 6000 can be the upper cap. In the daily charts nifty is forming a rising wedge pattern with a steep rise almost at 80 degree which gives some doubts regarding the amount of rise in prices.Thus as of now we could see a range bound scene in the coming days where i should not be a buyer on the break out highs and it could trap the buyers.If we analyse the previous two tops we could see that nifty marked a new high of an existing rally but started falling from the next day and this time also the scenario is almost similar. The good thing regarding this time would be stocks would get an opportunity to form a base or a double bottom where some accumulation could be seen, dollar could form a double top on any rise and so on. In a nutshell if you are an expert options trader these are days to sell options and in these kind of situations one should wait on the side lines to wait for a top to be formed and dont chase the market by buying the breakout highs.