Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Nifty update for 21-Nov-2013





Nifty is facing some major resistance around 6230 where some fresh short positions got created in today's trade. Anyway the premium has come down significantly and the short build up is happening in December futures and not the current month.Nifty is moving in a well defined channel and it tested the upper end and the lower end is placed around 5950-6000 levels.We could see one symmetrical triangle pattern too in the hourly chart and one of these patterns would solve the puzzle within a day or two but it would be a little bit difficult for nifty to reach the higher targets within a short period. Thus stick on to equities rather than call options and buy equities on any deeper cuts. The uptrend is still intact but the volatility index is showing that there are some wild moves ahead and we could see some call writing at 6200 strike in the afternoon session. Thus a break of 6240 will lead to the next possible target of 6500 or else one could buy close to the support zone of 6000-5950 and it is wise not to take any trades in between.The major reason for the caution is the low volume trades happening in US market an the CBOE VIX is close to the lowest levels and technically it is forming a rising wedge. In a bull market it is common to give false break downs let it be US or India but it is better to be cautious about long positions. I would like to expect a range bound market between 6000-6240 for the rest of November and would like to buy 6500 call dec once nifty futures crosses 6240 levels.We could see put writing happening at 6000 levels when the market came down last week and it is yet to see they are holding onto the positions or not. 20-24 Dec 2013 and first week of JAN 2014 are important dates as nifty would decide the turning points for the rest of the rest of the cycle from there.Overall the retailers are waiting for an opportunity to get in but the only problem is that India has to perform it alone compared to the global peers. Trading calls are available at https://www.facebook.com/Vinuniftytrends

Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Nifty update for 13 - 15 November 2013



Nifty is retracing the rally and it is expected to complete the retracement close to 5950-6000. Options data suggesting some heavy call writing at the upper end of 6200 and 6300 but i would like to see this as a consolidation phase than a deeper sell off. The hourly indicators are in a sell mode and it breached the well known support area of 6080 but bank nifty will complete one major retracement close to 10500. Midcap and small cap indices which led the rally have not sold off like nifty did and these are signalling a cyclical upmove but only by the year end.Nifty made a halt almost on the same date of 2010 and these are well known pressure dates and the consolidation phase could last for 20-24 Dec or till first week of Jan 2015 as next important time cycles are coming around those dates. The heavy premium in nifty is telling us retailers are buying nifty on every dip and are getting trapped at every level and on any upove they would just get out than creating long positions. Thus it would take some more time for nifty to give a good rally because at current premium it is looking quite expensive. Options data suggesting some put writing happening at 6000 strike but 6100 calls are also being written , thus it would be a wait and watch game whether 6k is protected or not. Nifty is close to some important support zones and Axis bank one of the most positively correlated stock with nifty should stop falling for any relief rally. Thus i would still like to go for buy on dips approach by buying puts on any downside pressure. 

On the currency front USD/ INR is on it way up and it is on the final way before heading down. EURO/USD which i am mostly concentrating than USD/INR has given a reversal on the hourly chart which is a good sign of consolidation for nifty. One stock that might make a rebound is Indus ind bank as the bank has not sold off like the others. It would be good bet if one could get it close to 400-405 band and keep a stop of 390 ( trade light to test the bottom of nifty)

Monday, November 4, 2013

Investors corner - India cements

The stock is trading in a band of 49-51 for quite a few days . Decent volume,good delivery and a dividend yield of 3.9%/annum. Buying the stock to for a target of 100 .Investment horizon 2 years 

Sunday, November 3, 2013

Investors Corner - India Cements

India cements 

The stock is trading close to 49-51 band. Decent volumes,good delivery volume, comparatively cheaper to its peers,dividend yield of 3.9%/annum and a face value of Rs.10. Buying the stock with an investment horizon of 2 years.
Happy Diwali to all the followers of this blog