Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Nifty update for 21-Nov-2013





Nifty is facing some major resistance around 6230 where some fresh short positions got created in today's trade. Anyway the premium has come down significantly and the short build up is happening in December futures and not the current month.Nifty is moving in a well defined channel and it tested the upper end and the lower end is placed around 5950-6000 levels.We could see one symmetrical triangle pattern too in the hourly chart and one of these patterns would solve the puzzle within a day or two but it would be a little bit difficult for nifty to reach the higher targets within a short period. Thus stick on to equities rather than call options and buy equities on any deeper cuts. The uptrend is still intact but the volatility index is showing that there are some wild moves ahead and we could see some call writing at 6200 strike in the afternoon session. Thus a break of 6240 will lead to the next possible target of 6500 or else one could buy close to the support zone of 6000-5950 and it is wise not to take any trades in between.The major reason for the caution is the low volume trades happening in US market an the CBOE VIX is close to the lowest levels and technically it is forming a rising wedge. In a bull market it is common to give false break downs let it be US or India but it is better to be cautious about long positions. I would like to expect a range bound market between 6000-6240 for the rest of November and would like to buy 6500 call dec once nifty futures crosses 6240 levels.We could see put writing happening at 6000 levels when the market came down last week and it is yet to see they are holding onto the positions or not. 20-24 Dec 2013 and first week of JAN 2014 are important dates as nifty would decide the turning points for the rest of the rest of the cycle from there.Overall the retailers are waiting for an opportunity to get in but the only problem is that India has to perform it alone compared to the global peers. Trading calls are available at https://www.facebook.com/Vinuniftytrends

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