Nifty update for Dec 23 - 27 2013

Nifty held 6150 zone and as i mentioned in the previous post apart from 6200 put we could not see any build up any strike on the put side. We could see India VIX settling close to 16 zone which was good sign for bullish sentiments in the market and the longs should be cautious once it comes below 15 where the IV's of options become very low and buying options would be benefiting more than selling options. Nifty demands much more time to take out the previous highs and we need to give it some time for buyers to accumulate stocks than jumping in for new highs.ICICI bank and Bank of Baroda can be top picks for this bounce back and see this as a bounce back rather than a major move. As mentioned 20-24 Dec can be crucial date for a major base and the rally might happen in Jan and don't expect it to happen immediately. ITC is another decent pick from the defensive pack. It has corrected well and i would expect the stock to rally to 330-335 levels with a stop below 309. We could see some build up happening in 5900,6000 puts of Jan and 6600 call in the whole month of Dec and the range can be a little more wider and it is good to see that market is not breaking below 6150. It can be a major support zone in the coming days too that can  give a trend deciding move in the medium term.As per options data there can be some stiff resistance points close to 6350-6370 zone and it can be assumed that the long positions build up has happened in Jan futures and 6150 can be the stop for all long positions.

Nifty update for 13-20 Dec 2013

Nifty maintains its weaker position as mentioned in the previous post, small cap and midcap indices have completed a 5 wave upmove in the daily charts and it is expected to give an ABC correction in the days to come. S&P is at a crucial juncture close to the mentioned zone of 1775-1780  which can give a 10-12 % correction from the current levels. Bank of India is one stock that give a correction of 6-8% to 197-200 zone in the near future and bank nifty can drop to 11100-200 zone in the current series. Dec 20-24 can be crucial dates as all news flows would be factored in close to those dates and ideal for a straddle position in at the money options close to those dates.6200 put had seen decent build up in the entire series and we coul see some heavy call writing happening in 6200 and 6300 calls. This data suggests the upside cap of 6350-6380 and the technical picture is also pointing towards 6350 - 60 levels. Thus 6400 can be a little bit distant dream as we might probably break 6200 zone soon. As of now we could not see any major build up apart from 6200 put and the downside picture would be clear regarding the build up in other strikes.Thus midcap and small cap names can give some major corrective moves than banking as they have already corrected from their highs. Wait for buying opportunities only when the market settles down 

Nifty update 12-Dec-2013

Nifty is almost done with the short term and it went close to the medium term target of 6500 once and reversed from there. There would some short term corrections but the lower range has clearly shifted from 5750 to 6000-6100 in the medium term perspective. One should be cautious about the US market which is on the verge of a medium term correction but Hangseng should give some support close to 23k levels.Thus these news flows are not good for nifty but the index is almost ready to outperform without any major ones. It is time to exit from private sector banking names like ICICI bank, Axis bank and auto biggie Maruti and time to search for some better names. 6400 call got written in a range of 75-85 and this could act as a stiff resistance area and even if nifty gives a bounce 6470-6480 could still be a safer zone for these options writers.There is a lot of time for a major correction in nifty and bank nifty has a decent support zone close to 11500 and i dont expect it to break this zone soon.Look out for 1775-1780 levels in S&P as these levels could initiate a major sell off in U S markets. Bank nifty is most likely to spend 1 month or more in a channel of 11200-12400 and the month is looking like a range bound month with 6150-6450 as the broader range for the rest of the month.There is nothing left in nifty except a throw back to 6400+ levels once more in Dec. The overall view remains bullish as it is still maintaining a higher top higher bottom formation but wait for good buying opportunities rather than going with the crowd 

Nifty update 04-Dec-2013

Nifty is giving range bound sessions and as said 20-24 Dec would be key dates for deciding major moves in the indices.Stocks have performed much better than nifty and our mentioned portfolio of stocks are doing decent enough in this range bound market. Market breadth was positive in favor of advancing counters and we could see this as a good sign of bull market. As mentioned S&P has completed a rising wedge (a bearish pattern) which could have a negative effect on other markets too so it is wise to take care of your long positions. Nifty is moving in a consolidation phase rather than a corrective one.Volatility index is giving an uptick ahead of the state polls and one could see some major moves are happening in the index options.We could see some writing happening in 6100 put and 6400 call and it could be the shorter range of market for the short term and punters might have written a combined premium of around 190-200 points premium which is quite huge. Thus wait for the premium to reduce and traders might shift to other strikes soon.It is better to avoid options trades as this moment as trades might get stuck up in trades.

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Nifty update for 21-Nov-2013

Nifty is facing some major resistance around 6230 where some fresh short positions got created in today's trade. Anyway the premium has come down significantly and the short build up is happening in December futures and not the current month.Nifty is moving in a well defined channel and it tested the upper end and the lower end is placed around 5950-6000 levels.We could see one symmetrical triangle pattern too in the hourly chart and one of these patterns would solve the puzzle within a day or two but it would be a little bit difficult for nifty to reach the higher targets within a short period. Thus stick on to equities rather than call options and buy equities on any deeper cuts. The uptrend is still intact but the volatility index is showing that there are some wild moves ahead and we could see some call writing at 6200 strike in the afternoon session. Thus a break of 6240 will lead to the next possible target of 6500 or else one could buy close to the support zone of 6000-5950 and it is wise not to take any trades in between.The major reason for the caution is the low volume trades happening in US market an the CBOE VIX is close to the lowest levels and technically it is forming a rising wedge. In a bull market it is common to give false break downs let it be US or India but it is better to be cautious about long positions. I would like to expect a range bound market between 6000-6240 for the rest of November and would like to buy 6500 call dec once nifty futures crosses 6240 levels.We could see put writing happening at 6000 levels when the market came down last week and it is yet to see they are holding onto the positions or not. 20-24 Dec 2013 and first week of JAN 2014 are important dates as nifty would decide the turning points for the rest of the rest of the cycle from there.Overall the retailers are waiting for an opportunity to get in but the only problem is that India has to perform it alone compared to the global peers. Trading calls are available at https://www.facebook.com/Vinuniftytrends

Nifty update for 13 - 15 November 2013

Nifty is retracing the rally and it is expected to complete the retracement close to 5950-6000. Options data suggesting some heavy call writing at the upper end of 6200 and 6300 but i would like to see this as a consolidation phase than a deeper sell off. The hourly indicators are in a sell mode and it breached the well known support area of 6080 but bank nifty will complete one major retracement close to 10500. Midcap and small cap indices which led the rally have not sold off like nifty did and these are signalling a cyclical upmove but only by the year end.Nifty made a halt almost on the same date of 2010 and these are well known pressure dates and the consolidation phase could last for 20-24 Dec or till first week of Jan 2015 as next important time cycles are coming around those dates. The heavy premium in nifty is telling us retailers are buying nifty on every dip and are getting trapped at every level and on any upove they would just get out than creating long positions. Thus it would take some more time for nifty to give a good rally because at current premium it is looking quite expensive. Options data suggesting some put writing happening at 6000 strike but 6100 calls are also being written , thus it would be a wait and watch game whether 6k is protected or not. Nifty is close to some important support zones and Axis bank one of the most positively correlated stock with nifty should stop falling for any relief rally. Thus i would still like to go for buy on dips approach by buying puts on any downside pressure. 

On the currency front USD/ INR is on it way up and it is on the final way before heading down. EURO/USD which i am mostly concentrating than USD/INR has given a reversal on the hourly chart which is a good sign of consolidation for nifty. One stock that might make a rebound is Indus ind bank as the bank has not sold off like the others. It would be good bet if one could get it close to 400-405 band and keep a stop of 390 ( trade light to test the bottom of nifty)

Investors corner - India cements

The stock is trading in a band of 49-51 for quite a few days . Decent volume,good delivery and a dividend yield of 3.9%/annum. Buying the stock to for a target of 100 .Investment horizon 2 years 

Investors Corner - India Cements

India cements 

The stock is trading close to 49-51 band. Decent volumes,good delivery volume, comparatively cheaper to its peers,dividend yield of 3.9%/annum and a face value of Rs.10. Buying the stock with an investment horizon of 2 years.

Happy Diwali to all the followers of this blog 

Nifty update for 30 -Oct-2013

Nifty ended the correction at 6080 levels and continued the rally to 6200+ levels. It was interesting to see bank nifty breaking the downward slopping trend line and gave one of the best closings of the recent time. Lot many midcap banking stocks have again come in a buying mode after a consolidation phase and thus it is better not to chase nifty and concentrate on stock specific ideas.The current pattern is showing a broadening wedge which is a very unusual pattern in indices which shows a pattern target of 6500 which was mentioned as the medium term target in the previous post.Thus as said in the previous post it is better to shift from defensive stocks and focus on midcap banking especially PSU stocks and the rate sensitives ones than chasing nifty.  Never leave the equity portfolio and whenever in risk buy puts just to protect the portfolio.

I would like to add one more stock to the portfolio apart from the 4 which are discussed before (syndicate bank, mcleod russel, tata chemicals and r- power) and that is HDIL. The stock is trading close to the support zone and showing good accumulation pattern. Buy the stock with a stop below 37 for a target of 60-65 in a period of 2-3 months .

Nifty update for 28 Oct - 1 Nov 2013

Nifty held 6120-6130 once more and it is expected to trade down till 5900-5950 with a reversal above 6270. If it is in a sell mode it has to do it fast and no short sell ideas will work out in a range bound market (as the chartists say "never short a dull market"). Thus wait for 6120-6130 zone to be taken out and enter into short selling mode by with 5900 put November.Important developments that are happening in equity market would be the end of run up in telecom and fmcg sectors and it is time to exit stocks from these sectors. Even if nifty performs it is time to shift focus to banks and rate sensitives from the defensive's. if we look at the world markets we could see a break down happening in hongkong but all others are not looking like a sell at all. Indian markets are also not showing any signs of breaking down but waiting for a consolidation or a breathing space. Midcap index has reached an important resistance point where it can give a decent retracement and bank nifty is not crossing the previous high zones.

Nifty update for 25 Oct 2013

Nifty has done with the upside target of 6250 and is expected to trade till 5950-5900 in the short term with a reversal above 6270. The volume data is the major concern for the current up move and i expect it to correct till 61.8% retracement one of 5900-5950. I am not expecting a deeper correction just because of the optimism in the market but two major indices which are midcap and the banking index are at major resistance points and bank nifty is not even reaching the previous highs. If we see the volume data nifty it was huge on negative closing days. Thus i am expecting a retracement move to the current up move and 5900 put November would be a good bet for this downside move. Bank nifty can give a corrective move to its 20 and 40 day moving averages close to 10300 levels but expect this as only a bull market correction and not as the beginning of a bear market . The medium term trend is up as far as 5750-5800 holds and i don't expect other indices to give a break down even if nifty comes down just because it would give some time for traders for accumulation. The premium in futures contract is very less and it clearly says that people are less interested at higher levels and waiting for a dip to buy more and thus there is a possibility of increasing premium at lower levels though the scenario is very rare in nifty. Expert options traders would write options at this juncture as it can be more profitable because the downward move would not be that steep. The trade setup can be like this

Buy on 5900 put and on any major dip add stocks than calls as the range bound market scenario is developing and as a retailer it would be very irritating unless and until you are an options trader.

Short term trend   -  Down                               
 Target     -             5950-5900                   
 Reversal  -                6270

  Medium term trend       Up                                                                        
  Target                           6500            
  Reversal                        5750 
                                                                                                       

Investment picks - R power and TATA chemicals

R - power

1. R - power is coming out of an accumulation zone with a after spending a long time in the range of 60-70, The patterns are showing a move to 100-110 within 6 months time frame with a stop below 65 on closing basis. The stock is trading above the major moving averages with the successful break out from a symmetrical triangle with decent volume.

   TATA Chemicals

2 . TATA Chemicals - The underdog from the fertilizers space has been giving a rounding bottom formation in the daily chart with a good upside potential close to 315-325 within 6 months time frame with a closing stop below 235. Delivery volumes were extremely good and any dip close to the support zone or a breakout above 255 zone is a buying opportunity 

Nifty update for 14 - 18 Oct 2013

Nifty had quite a good run from the support zones and it is expected to trade till 6200-6250 with a reversal below 5820-5850. Yes , we are close to the resistance part and don't chase the market for a break out to buy ,but wait for consolidations to be a buyer at the support zone. It is explaining a typical bull market scenario where almost all the sectors are participating and that is what is exactly a decent run up means. A confusing figure of 6000 or 6100 cannot make market expensive because just 2-3 weeks ago only broader indices started to out perform , thus buy the dips. If we take the broader indices we could see bank nifty has a decent support close to 10k zone where some important moving averages and a trend line is placed and the indices have a little more to go before going to the overbought territory and none of the stocks are in an exhaustion stage. It is time to enter into good stocks and i had already mentioned two in the previous posts. Nifty has enough cushion at 5900-5950 in the current expiry and a dip to these zones can be a good buying opportunity and that too with November call options.  

S&P alert !!!

In the previous post i had mentioned about a very much possible correction of U S market in the immediate short term and finally S&P is breaking down the trend line a correction close to 1620 can be expected in the short and as it is a news based and if the crisis is worsening we need to be careful about the immediate danger. It will be a wait and watch week for nifty and we are yet to see how nifty will react to the bad news in the world markets. It might give nifty some time to shed the heavy premium and stocks would turn to be attractive at lower levels. The volatility index is expected to rise further and if we only take nifty it would be a positive sign as we could see 27-28 levels in India VIX close to 6000 levels in nifty. The consolidation phase in EURO/USD and the last wave upmove in USD/INR can give a halt to the current upmove atleast in the short term.

Nifty update - 08-12 Oct -2013

                                                                  1. S&P

        

    2. J P Morgan

Nifty came down till 5750 and gave a bounce from those levels to 6000 and it is showing lot of buying support at lower levels. Bank nifty has completed a faster retracement as compared to nifty and yes i am seeing some kind of a bull market scenario. 

How can it be a bull market.

1. Midcap and Small cap indices are giving signs of reversals and making higher tops compared to nifty in the past 3-4 months.

2. Many of the midcap PSU banking stocks are turning their heads up for a major up move obviously some major moving average cross overs over the past few months.

3. In the past one year nifty has come 4 times close to 6300 while it came down only till 5100 and that too only once.

4. EURO/USD might consolidate in the short term but maintaining their bullish sentiment for the

 rest of the year.

5. India VIX close to 28-30 where market normally forms a bottom.

Words of caution.

The prediction can go wrong mainly because of two reasons 

1. US markets giving a major correction , given the current situation and the debt ceiling issue has to be solved for some kind of consolidation with a downside cushion at 1600 .
1650-60 are levels to be watched for 

2. USD/INR reversing the trend on the upside which i see a very low probability in the given conditions. 

3. The premium in nifty futures has to come down for a better opportunity to be a buyer, not ruling out a consolidation phase in October.

I have attached charts of JP morgan and S&P 500 for the purpose of correlation.

Anyway as of now it is not far from seeing a new high in nifty by early 2014.

Investment Pick 2 - Syndicate bank

                                                       Investors Corner 

The stock has been an under performer and did not perform well in the recent up move. If we need to bet on the banking sector we should possibly do it with a good risk - reward ratio . Buy the stock in a range of 64-68 for a target of 110+ within a year. The weightage  for this stock should be low as the high beta of the sector would fetch more returns if the sector performs well. Keep a stop of 60 on closing basis.

Investment pick - Mcleod Russel

Investors Corner

Mcleod Russel - One stock that helped me to identify the real bull market in India. It always lead nifty in an up move and the downward move too. The stock has completed a good retracement from the top and it expected to test 340-360 in a year . Buy above 265 stop of 240 on a closing basis. 

(I have started a new section called Investment corner from today onwards. Quit my job have started an advisory firm. This section is for those investors who were in touch with me through emails and over the phone who always told me to update regarding the investment ideas. Feel free to get in touch with me over email or phone for any fund management service (and not for intra day picks, as i am not the right one)

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Nifty update for 26 - Sep 2013 - 4 - Oct - 2013

Nifty was moving in an upward channel and is expected to trade till 5550-5600 in the short term with a reversal above 6150. The index has completed a 5 wave pattern on the upside and forming a Head and Shoulders pattern in the hourly charts and the 61.8% retracement is around 5550-5530 levels. The neckline is around 5820 levels and we could see the formation of right shoulder in process. If we see a correction it can be in an A-B-C pattern and thus it wont be a straight line fall. The world market charts are also supporting a downward move but in Indian markets it would be a retest of the bottoms for many stocks. Hang seng is trading close to upper channel and can possibly slip to 22k levels and i am expecting dollar to touch 64-65 levels once again after consolidating close to 61-61.5 levels. The low of 5820 levels made on 25th Sep 2013 is the key and we could see a good fall below these levels and 5500 put October would be the best options contract to be bought in this downward move.As the expiry is close by we could see options premiums coming down and thus we could buy put options at a cheaper rate. With those wild swings if it reaches 5950-6000 levels too the market does not look like the one to go long. If we look at the US SPXVIX it is trading at the lowest levels fro it could rise and a tired US market could be a catalyst for the down move in the Asian markets too.

Global Markets outlook

It has been a while that i have posted something about the global markets. As nifty is at a crucial juncture it is wise to have a look into other markets too. I have posted the charts of S&P and Hangseng which influences nifty a lot.Both these markets are in an uptrend and close to the previous tops. S&P could rally upto 1750 without much difficulty with a decent support close to 1650 and 1600 levels. These are good support zones from it got lot of buying interest.In a nutshell these are trend deciding levels for U S markets because it would be a lower top lower bottom formation below these zones.The CBOE VIX is not showing any major upmove so it can still hover around 13.5 - 16 for a month or so. Dollar index is ready for the upmove and that is the only worrying factor for equity markets all around the world.The reversal for Hangseng would be only below 22700 levels which is quite far as of now and these uptrends are intact as of now. Thus before shouting for sell calls in nifty lets have an understanding about the globe and one should be watchful for any reversal for these markets so that we can initiate sell signals too. As of now even if nifty corrects dont expect a major break down move and i expect it to correct only in an ABC pattern. The chartists say "As long as it is maintaining a higher top and higher bottom the trend is intact"

Nifty update for 18- Sep - 2013

Nifty tested the support zone once again close to 5820-25 and bounced back sharply from those lows.The volatility index ended on a negative note and the premium in nifty futures was moving at a steady level for past 2-3 trading sessions. It indicates people are still bullish on nifty and we could not see any major short buildup because of the mispriced put options. The options table shows decent amount of put writing happening at lower levels and even if it breaks on the downside a bounce back could be expected.On the upside traders got enough opportunity to write 6000 calls during the past 3-4 days and they have utilized it well thus 6000 can be the upper cap. In the daily charts nifty is forming a rising wedge pattern with a steep rise almost at 80 degree which gives some doubts regarding the amount of rise in prices.Thus as of now we could see a range bound scene in the coming days where i should not be a buyer on the break out highs and it could trap the buyers.If we analyse the previous two tops we could see that nifty marked a new high of an existing rally but started falling from the next day and this time also the scenario is almost similar. The good thing regarding this time would be stocks would get an opportunity to form a base or a double bottom where some accumulation could be seen, dollar could form a double top on any rise and so on. In a nutshell if you are an expert options trader these are days to sell options and in these kind of situations one should wait on the side lines to wait for a top to be formed and dont chase the market by buying the breakout highs.

Nifty update for 17 - 21 Sep 2013

Nifty is done with the mentioned upside level of 5850 and is completing a 5 wave pattern on the upside. A sell signal or an A-B-C correction can be expected in nifty futures below 5810 levels where i expect it to correct to 5600 levels.As of now it is wise to get out of trading longs as nifty is showing some kind of exhaustion which gives the sign of profit booking.If we look at the corresponding indices like bank nifty, mid cap and small cap indices we could not see any kind of break down and thus we should be expecting a range bound market with a negative bias below 5810 levels. It would be wise to buy 5700 put Sep if the futures trades below the mentioned support zone. It would be interesting if the premium in nifty reduces at these levels which can give some promising upside momentum but the premium is still on the higher side. Nifty has completed 78% retracement from 5100 levels and it decent range bound market gives an opportunity for many stocks to form a temporary bottom before the next upmove. Thus avoid the upside break outs as we could see lot of negative divergence in the market for any good up move. The volatility index is giving signals of fresh short positions at the top and 6000 calls have been getting written for the past 3-4 days 

Nifty update for 10-14 Sep 2013

Nifty continued its uptrend and achieved the mentioned upside target of 5650+levels and bank nifty is done with 10 k levels.The current up move is strong and ensuring participation from all sectors. Thus it would be wise to book some long positions as it is not advisable to trail the stop losses at this juncture. The reason for saying this is the  increase in premium in nifty futures represents institutional buying from 5570-5600 levels. Unfortunately retail traders are not convinced with the current rally and they are still holding the short positions as we could not see any reduction in the options premium. Any dip to 5570-5600 can attract and i would not advice any buying  at a fresh high close to 5800. Short sellers have to wait before initiating short positions as the market is giving a series of higher tops and higher top formations which is a bullish sign in the short term. Time cycles are also warning to square off the longs but don't initiate short positions at current levels. The upside target can be anywhere close to 5750-5850 where some major retracement zones are placed.Other indices like bank nifty, small cap and midcap are not showing any kind of exhaustion and it could attract more buyers at lower levels.(follow me on facebook for more updates regarding stocks https://www.facebook.com/Vinuniftytrends)

Nifty update for 05- Sep-2013

Nifty stopped at the mentioned level of 5300-5320 and should be considered as a major support zone in the coming days. It can be a trend deciding level and can be the trailing stop for all long positions. Though it is still a range bound market and all the bullish sentiments are sold into deeper dips in the market have to be bought. Nifty can move to next square of 5625 above 5476 on a closing basis as mathematically it can be regarded as crucial level. On the stocks front some of the banking stocks especially the one's like ICICI bank and Axis bank can be the worst performers in the coming months after the bounce. I am  expecting Axis to fall to sub 600 levels in the coming months as the private banking stocks have one more leg left before bottoming out just like nifty 

Nifty update for 02-06 Sep 2013

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Nifty gave a sharp reversal after making a new 52 week low with heavy volume and it indicates that it can move upto 5650+ levels with a decent support close to 5320-5300 zone. Bank nifty is a better candidate from the trading perspective as it is a fresh bullish flag break out above 9200 zone. Thus wait for bank nifty to break above 9200 zone for an immediate  of 10000. Expert options traders can sell puts as the market volatility is still at a peak. As it can be a bigger move buying out of the money options too would be a good strategy and better not play with futures. If nifty is not giving a decent consolidation or dip it is not worth buying for 5650 as it can only be treated as a counter trend move. One should be careful about U S market too as S&P can initiate fresh sell below 1625 zone. Thus on the buy side the volumes should be light and as of now bank nifty is the only one giving fresh buying signal above the mentioned zone.

(Though calls would be less here the face book page is active and readers can visit my face book page for more updates https://www.facebook.com/Vinuniftytrends)

Nifty update for 12-16 Aug 2013

Nifty futures bounced back to 5840 levels but continued its downward journey towards 5500 levels. As it was a counter trend move no buying was advised and judgement proved right in that way. I expect nifty to hold 5470-5500 levels for some more time as some of the major stocks have given reversal signs. Nifty futures is expected to give rise up to 5750-5800 with a reversal below 5500. As the volatility is at the peak it is wise to sell puts than buying calls as it would be difficult for call premiums to rise even if the market moves up.The hourly hart of nifty is showing a falling trend line break out above 5600 level.Momentum indicators are positive and all the major stocks are giving the signs of reversal. One interesting stock at this juncture would be Indus ind bank, trading above its 20 day moving average the stock is about to give a bounce to 400+ levels in the short term. Buy at 378-379 range with a stop at 367 for a target of 401-405 in the coming days. Options data is showing addition in 5700 call and 5400 put and 5400-5700 can be a broader range for some more days.

Nifty update for 01-Aug - 09- Aug 2013

Nifty continued its downtrend and 5800 put has given 200% return from the date of posting. The index is expected to find decent support in 5650-5700 zone in the short term and a decent bounce to 5880-5900 can be seen.Apart from the wave theory time cycles are playing important roles this time and it is expected to settle down near the temporary top between aug 20-26 and till then we could see some bottom fishing close to the support zones. Any upmove from the current lows can be temporary and give it some time to settle down and go for some shopping. The long term uptrend is in danger as most of the stocks are close to their 52 week lows and index cannot show up as an out performer.Nifty is showing some bigger wave counts and we could see that nifty is probably making a Head and shoulder neckline formation close to 5700 zone and it could result in some immediate bounce backs.

Derivatives Update

Nifty futures shed some premium on the bounce back with a decrease in Open interest indicating some long positions got squared off by traders after the bounce back.Volatility index came down from the highs indicating 5700 strike put can act as a support zone in the near term.Unwinding of 5800 and 5900 put continued and we should see whether options writers would again get active on these strikes so that the market moves higher.Call writing could be seen even in 5700 and 5800 strike and it is evident that traders are expecting market to be in a range of 5700-5900 and they are just using the premium to write options for the current series. As per the options data 6000 can be the ceiling for the market in this expiry and short term bounce is expected till 5880-5900.

Nifty update 24-July - 2013

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Bank nifty heading towards 10000 levels in the month of August, clear negative correlation between midcap index, bank nifty and nifty. Buying 5800 put aug at 45 hold it with a stop at 20 ..for more updates one can log into my facebook page where i would update intraday

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Nifty update for 15-21 July 2013

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Nifty continued the upmove and done with the 61.8% retracement target of 5920-50 and trading higher above 6000 levels. It is expected to take support at the break away gap of 5890-5900 and trade higher till 6200 in the medium term. August too can be a positive month for nifty if world market reacts in favor. If we look at the chart structure nifty should not move at the current pace but lot of other indices like Banknifty, midcap and small cap index should outperform in the short term. Thus a pause in nifty is not ruled out as the advance decline ratio's have been poor and we should give some time for other indices to out perform. A negative dollar with a near term target of 58 can boost equity markets in a bigger way.If we look at S&P it is close to the previous top but i am not expecting a serious upmove here after and slightly negative for a target of 1600 or lower in the near term. The maximum upside can be 1690-1700 where it should make distribution patterns and lower volumes are saying this. In the stocks front 5-6 stocks can out perform nifty in the near term.The volatility data shows that buying is happening at lower levels as traders have missed so many gap up openings and looking at dips to accumulate. Thus i am expecting other indices like midcap and small cap space to out perform nifty in the short term.

Canara Bank - Looks like a head and shoulders base formation .Wait till 40 days moving average to be taken out which is placed around 360 keep a stop at 352 for a target of 380-385.

Coal India - Stock is trading above 20 & 40 days moving average, momentum indicators are positive long above 303 stop at 296. Look for a target of 325 in the short term.

DLF - No major accumulation has taken place but the momentum is in favor and a falling trendline break out on the upside is visible . Would like to be a buyer around 180 and stop would be around 175 like to place a target of 195 in the short term.

Exide - The favorite among all . A rounding bottom formation , positive momentum with decent volumes looks like 118 is the stop for a target of 135 +

Jindal steel - A high momentum stock , tired of falling, looking at a target of 240+ in the short term 213 can be the stop

Nifty update for 27-June-2013

Nifty is consolidating between 5500-5640 and it is expected to trade till 5750-5800 with a reversal below 5490. As of now it is giving lot many whipsaws and traders might find it difficult t trade these levels and this is happening mainly because of the volatility index and movement in dollar.As these movements are happening due to external factors there is no change in the bullish view in the short term. Dollar/INR has reached 61 and it is fair to believe that it is the final leg of this bull market in dollar and the heavy premium in the futures contracts is telling that.Volatility index gave a negative close and we could see July futures trading at par with the spot nifty and the interpretation can be traders have squared of some their long positions and i could not see any fresh short build up as of now. The world markets are at important support levels , let it be CAC , DAX , FTSE and Hongkong and it is wise to have some buying positions than initiating short positions at this level. The IV's of many options are at its peak but 5800 July would be a decent option at this stage as we can buy the risk only at a cost of Rs.40-50. If we compare the stocks YES bank and HDFC ltd are giving good trading opportunities. YES bank is a long above 460 and it can happen today or tomorrow and the stop is placed at 445 , expect a target of 490. HDFC is a buy on dips stock , stop is at 795 expecting a target of 840-845 in the coming days. As i had already stated we should consider it only as a bounce back to 5750-5800 levels as the world markets seem to have topped out. India VIX at 21+ levels would medium term traders very good trading opportunities for higher targets and i expect nifty has completed a 5 wave pattern on the downside , price and time wise. 

Nifty update for June-25-2013

Nifty followed what bank nifty was telling and that was major thing mentioned in my previous post. I did expect a bounce but only with the help of bank nifty and it broke below the crucial 11600 levels and went for a correction.The index has been sliding in a perfect 5 wave pattern according to the Elliot wave theory and it would be completing the 5th wave soon. India VIX is near to to its 2 year's high and all is well to expect a perfect bounce to 5700-5750 zone. In the June series 5700 can be the ceiling but if there is a bounce it could extend to beyond 5700 levels(in July series) too. I was mentioning about the distribution pattern in S&P below 1600 levels and it has given a correction of close to 50 points below that. Nifty has been giving lower top lower bottom formation in the daily charts and is expected to trade till 5200 in the coming months.On the downside we could see good addition of 5500 puts ahead of expiry and i dont see nifty breaking 5500-5700 range in the current expiry. I would like to go long on stocks like ICICI bank (stop at 1022) , Indus ind bank (stop at 440). It is better not to buy options as we could see lot of extra premium as the volatility has shot up. Nifty is trading at a discount and it would be a favorable condition for covered call writers to buy nifty futures with writing at the money call at the same time(for expert options traders).TCS would be another interesting stock at this juncture and it is getting resisted close to 1435-30 zone in the recent time. It would be a major break out for the stock on the upside above this zone. In the longer term charts we could see nifty breaking 5500 and coming down all the way to 5200 levels and S&P to 1470 levels. In a bull market all the indices would give a leading indication of moving up and many stocks hit new highs and the indian equity market is doing just the opposite.Thus the longer term picture is dull for equity investors and buy a pull back with a view of trading purpose.

Nifty update for 17- 21 June 2013

                                         

Nifty has retraced till 78.6% of the entire rally and is expected to trade till 6000 - 6030 with a reversal below 5640 "BUT". Lets talk about the IF's and BUT's in this scenario.Bank nifty should give a leading signal for any decent reversals which has not happened yet as both nifty and the banking index are moving almost with the same momentum. If we observe the charts of other indices including the small cap and midcap we could see they are making lower tops and in a good bull market all the other indices follow nifty and it has not happened yet. The small cap index has even broken 52 week low and it gives a negative picture regarding the market. In the short term the retracement was good enough on the downside and nifty is trying to make 5500-5600 as the floor for some time but it is ready to break  11600 in bank nifty. If we see the chart of nifty we could see lot many trend lines can be drawn to offer the so called 'support', but the chart of bank nifty gives only a level of  11600 to break the bullish pattern of higher top and higher bottom.Now coming to the US market S&P is finding decent buying interest at 1590-1600 zone but it is all set to break below these levels and as a trader who watches the global markets closely one should be aware of this danger and below 1590 -1600 can be considered as a break down point. Despite the heavy fall in dollar index dollar/inr futures could touch 59+ levels and it also gives a word of caution in the near term. I had mentioned a few stocks in my previous posts and those were JP associates and SBI. L&T is also driven by momentum and it can go to greater highs to 1530+ where the higher end of bollinger bands are placed. As long as there is no consolidation there is enough reason to consider the rally as just a pull back and we should see some consolidation before stating it as a bull market in the short term.

Nifty update for 11-June-2013

Nifty broke the previous low and it could be heading towards 5770-5800 where the 61.8% retracement of the whole rally from 5500 levels.As i said in the previous post about nifty i would not be selling nifty below the lows of 5850-70 and would be waiting for a buying opportunity.Among the bigger names start with JP where where close to 62 would be a decent buying opportunity for this high beta name and
wait for other stocks to consolidate. I would expect a stock like BHEL to find a double bottom close to 175 zone and it is worth trying to  buy this stock close the the previous bottom as the retest is happening after a long time.It is better to search for those stocks which are finding a bottom when nifty is at 5800 levels. If we see the largecap banking space SBI is approaching the previous bottom of 1950 which can offer a decent bounce back, reliance is yet to reach 760-770 levels.Volatility index is showing the fear of traders by hitting  new highs with the rise in dollar.I would say this is a positive factor for nifty as spike in the volatility index is a little too much  for the market at this stage. We could see 5800 put building maximum number of positions and 5900 call was adding lot of positions in todays  session too.Nifty is following a bullish technical pattern of ending diagonal which would not give a consolidation stage and would instead give a V shape recovery from the downside.Thus wait for nifty to stop falling and let the mentioned stocks reach the respective support zones  with a discount in nifty futures and that would be the best time to go long.

Dollar move to 58 zone as predicted on 03 - March - 2013

Dollar has finally surpassed the previous high of 57.30 and it is trading higher close to 58 zone. I had written a something about the upward momentum in dollar 3rd March 2013(search dollar in the blog , u'll get it!!!)The bullish stand in dollar is justified by the movement in dollar index too. If we observe the dollar index we could see that Dollar/INR was rising when the dollar index was not rising and the correction in dollar index seems to be over and it would give a long term bullish view for dollar. It can be in the last leg of up move to 59+ as the dollar index can move up after the current correction. Thus in this move dollar index too would offer the support for dollar and it can be dangerous for who are short in dollar. It gives a dirty picture of the Indian economy along with the rise in crude oil prices and the equity market investors should be a little bit cautious at this juncture

Nifty update for 06-07 June 2013

Nifty is somehow holding the lower end of our downside target of 5880 as per the technical charts. As per the options data we have a downside base at 5800 put strike. Thus if we combine both these data i would square of my short positions anywhere below 5900 and wait for a buying opportunity. As a trader i might lose a trading opportunity if nifty slides to 5800 levels but i am ready for that opportunity loss. We could see world markets giving negative close for the past two weeks but nifty is holding 5900 levels and most of the stocks are close to their support zone or we can say there is nothing to sell in this market.Axis bank is the only disappointing stock in the large cap list and all others and holding their support zones.One interesting stock at this juncture would be CESC as it is about to give a breakout on the daily and weekly charts . I would like to buy some above 337 and it is a good break out above 345 levels. Thus it is a good portfolio bet for 450+ in a year and would like to place a stop below 307. Cipla is another stock which is a decent portfolio bet close to 360-370 as it is a strong support zone and a previous breakout zone.

Nifty update for 05-June-2013

Nifty gave a smart bounce close to 6000 bounce failed to retain the momentum and ended at the lower end of the range at 5930. If we look at the options table we could see significant addition of 5900 calls and as i mentioned in the first day of the series we could still see huge build up at 5800 strike.On the calls side 6100 strike has seen the maximum build up. The technical charts are still showing the same old head and shoulders break down and the targets would be much lower to 5750 levels but the width of the pattern is really creating some doubts in me regarding the downside targets. As mentioned in the previous posts there would be a little more downside left in the large cap names like SBI, Reliance, JP etc and we should wait patiently for these stocks too to bottom out so that nifty could see a reversal. It would be important to watch the addition in 5900 call on 05th June so that we would come to know the depth of the cut and as of now i would not expect nifty to break below 5800 in the short term.Volatility index is still trading with a little positive bias as we could not see much positive move today and it is indicating that the fall in the final hours would be due to long liquidation than short build up. The premium has not come down and the indication is that futures trades are betting on long side but with the intention to average it out on the downside.Nifty is at the 40 day moving average which is considered to be a crucial support zone and it is yet to wait and watch whether it could hold this zone on the downside. A break below the 40 day moving average can easily lead to 100 points cut in nifty.

Nifty update for 04-June-2013

Nifty made a low of 5925 and gave a sharp bounce to 5960 levels. As said in the previous post it is wise to square off the first set of short positions close to 5880-5940 levels and wait for a bounce to 6000-6030 levels for further trades. We might be listening to many voices related to the head and shoulders break down in nifty and one should be watchful regarding the relevance of the break down only after relating it with the performance of the large cap stocks and options data. As per options table the base still lies at 5800 strike and all the higher strike calls of 6100,6200 have been written heavily. Thus as of now it is wise to expect a rebound due to the activity in 6000 puts. The volatility index is close to the recent highs and the bounce back from 5925 was with decent premium. It indicates traders are busy creating long positions close to 5900 levels. The H&S pattern in nifty can be a failure pattern because of the width of the pattern as it is comparatively small. The levels of 5925 is eventually going to break but if it is after a bounce it would be a good distribution pattern and a wave 3 on the downside. If we see the stocks there are some stocks which are waiting for a rebound and i would first go with the ones like Federal bank and Auro pharma. Stocks like Reliance, SBI, L&T, JP associates are close to the support zones but wait for some more downside in these stocks to be a buyer. Among the private banking space Axis bank and ICICI bank are close to their 40 day moving average which is a positive factor for these stocks. 62-64 would be a decent price to add JP to the trading portfolio and as it is a high beta stock the returns would be pretty good. Re/dollar might fight some profit booking sessions close to the previous high of 57.30 but the trend is still intact. As of now we could see nifty in a range of 5920-6010 with 5920 as a crucial support zone for the month of June

Nifty update for 03-07 June 2013

Nifty has finally confirmed the top of 6120-30 levels and is moving down to immediate target of 5880-5940 zone. It is logical to assume a bounce back between these levels because of the multiple support zones. Options data is telling as a range of 5700-5800 but it can be reached after a substantial bounce back to 6050-6060 zone.If you see the institutional data we could see that they have started selling index futures and buying stock futures. The large cap space still held its head up by not reacting to the negative sentiment in nifty. Thus for traders it would be a little bit confusing  whether to take a short position or not. Options traders have to be careful while reading the volatility index too as they might end in buying expensive options contracts. If you see the pattern in nifty the hourly chart we could see a symmetrical triangle pattern with the lower end lying close to 5970 levels and a flag pattern with the lower end lying close to 5870 levels.The width of these patterns are larger compared to the normal ones and it could help nifty to bounce back from these levels.I would not be surprised to see dollar close to 59+ levels in its final leg of up move. These bounce backs can be justified just because of lack of time for a distribution pattern but if we see the options data we could see the maximum build up was at 6100 CE along with the build in 6200 and 6300 strikes on the expiry day. It is telling us that going ahead 6100 would be a stiff resistance and it would be a sell on rise market with a downside target close to 5940-5870 levels.Traders need to wait for a major break down as it needs decent distribution pattern which has not happened yet.

Nifty update for 30-May-2013

Nifty is done with 6100 level on the upside and it is trying to conquer 6125 levels but failing every time. We could see advance/decline ratio in favor of declining counters but the huge discount in nifty futures presents a worrisome picture for short sellers. If we analyse the stock specific data we could see that some of the banking stocks are close to the support zones or breaking down.Axis bank is one such which has broken down from the support zone of 1440 and the stock can move to 1360-70 levels if nifty is not offering any support.It is wise to trail the stop losses in nifty close to 6050 than creating a new long position. If we check the options data maximum build up can be seen in 6300& 6400 call options and 5800 put options. The range seems to be a little wide this time and it seems to be a consolidation month than giving wild movements.Most of the large cap banking names have already gone through a correction phase but nifty is not reacting to this by closing above 6100.Though some of the stocks are in the negative territory index has not come to a selling mode till now and it is clearly telling us that nifty is not taking the negative sentiment in the broader market and moving alone.The volumes are less and lesser premium is showing the lack of demand and instead of buying one just needs to trail the stop loss and move with the market

Nifty update for 27-28 May 2013

Nifty continues to get decent support close to 5970 and it is expected to trade higher till 6100 with a reversal below 5930. The recent high of 6230 levels can be an interim top and i would like to update my medium term target of 6350 to 6230 levels. Nifty needs decent consolidation close to 5860-5930 to to break into new highs in the coming months. The bullish momentum can continue for some more time as the nifty futures is still trading in a discount and i have mentioned this fact a number of times in the blog.As the volatility index is at a higher level and the index futures is trading at a discount it is difficult to go with the bears. Long term investment call of Lupin has already done with the target of 800+ and i would like to shuffle the stock with Ranbaxy at this juncture.(29 april 2013 post) Weekly charts are saying that the stock is close to a good support zone and we could see smart money coming into this stock close to these levels. I would like to buy the stock in small quantity with a stop close to 380. It is always wise to test a bottom by buying some and not in bulk. TATA steel is another stock which is worth mentioning and both these stocks could give 10% return from current levels. I would like to hold onto Indus ind bank as a portfolio bet for 600+ and remaining ones as trading bets. Bank nifty is another factor which is in favor of a quick bounce in nifty as it could retest 13000-13050 levels once more and a rounding bottom formation in the hourly chart of nifty and bank nifty is suggesting that. Options data is suggesting 5900-6100 as a broader range for nifty in the coming weeks

Nifty update for 13 - 20 may 2013

Nifty has crossed the reversal point above 6000 and is expected to touch 6350 in the coming months with a strong support zone close to 5860-5900 levels. At this juncture we have to be cautious on stocks and I would like to stick with only two mentioned stocks like Lupin and Indus ind bank (see the previous post). If we see the derivatives data nifty futures is trading with a marginal premium and that cannot confirm a top in the short term. Volatility index is trading with a positive bias indicating retailers are going short in the market but their stop losses are being taken out. Stock specific data is telling us that there are lots of stocks yet to participate in the market rally especially from the metal space and PSU banking space. Thus we should watch out for the moves in derivatives data at this juncture than stock specific ones. Options data is suggesting 5900 as a strong support zone and technically too this can be a decent support zone. I would not like to place a top at 6100 levels unless and until the premium reaches close to 30-35 points. Turnover data is also suggesting low volumes on down trending days and that shows the intensity of real selling in the market. This is a market to initiate positional trades near the support zones and stay with it until 5850 is taken out. Thus it is better to get out of private banking space except indusind bank and enter long in the PSU banking space.

Nifty update for 30 April - 10 May 2013

Nifty is done with the mentioned upside target and it is fulfilling almost all conditions as per the wave count and the time cycle. After a sharp rally the market is going to be choppy and we cant expect a deep correction this time and it is going to be range bound this time and 5750-5970 can be a broad range for this expiry.Currency market would be good this time around if you are futures traders. As nifty is going to be range bound Dollar/INR and JPY/INR are expected to give good trading opportunities on the long side.On the stocks front Axis bank might have placed a decent top around 1500+ levels and the stock is expected to correct till 1350 levels in the near term. Two interesting stocks to watch would be Lupin and Indusind bank and these would be decent bets for investment on any correction. Lupin has a decent support close to 630-645 and i would like to place a target of 800+ in the coming year. Indus ind bank would be another stock i would like to try to bet on. We could see this stock not correcting as compared to its peers and this can be viewed as strength coming into this stock. 430-440 is a decent support zone for the stock and it is expected to touch 600+ in the coming year. As nifty has almost completed the bounce back it is wise to wait for a correction for any further buying positions. It is quite possible that nifty could spend long range bound sessions in the range of 5500-5950 in the coming months too.At this juncture i would be carefully watching two indices for leading indications ie; CNX midcap and metal index and both have to give good accumulation patterns for nifty to move up.

Trend           Time period                   Target              Reversal

Down            Medium term                5550                   6000

Nifty update 26 April - 03 May 2013

Nifty continued its upmove and it is expected to move up to 5950-70 which 78.6% retracement of the entire fall and i would not like to be a buyer at this level. As mentioned in the previous post i expected the upmove to continue till 5800 and i have liquidated all my long positions in nifty close to that level. DLF and HDFC bank gave a decent return in this current upmove and we could get the major chunk of this upmove. If we see the structure of nifty it has not turned into a bear market yet as it is some how holding 5500 levels on the downside. If we see the entire upmove we could see a V- shape recovery and these kind of recoveries will usually for top conformation because of the simple reason it is not attracting too many buyers. When we see the rollover data it is so poor and not much positions are getting added in the equity market too. After a decent run it wont fall that fast and lot of people would be waiting on the side lines to be a buyer. 5800-5820  would be a decent support zone in the short run and after this run up it is expected to give range bound sessions between 5700-5970 in the coming two weeks. Cyclically May is not a good month for equity markets and if you see the base metals in the commodity market they are still in a downtrend. Thus those short term bounce backs were helpful for metals stocks to rebound along with banking stocks and that was the reason for this sharp recovery. If we see the nifty cycles we are close to a date were we can top out in the near future close to the end of this month. 

Nifty update for 11-April-2013

Nifty bounced back from the days low and it got close to the mentioned target of 5450. The bounce is expected to continue till 5720 levels which is the 50% retracement of the whole fall. Nifty made a low close to 5476 which is an important number and it has completed a short term price and time correction and thus we could see that the lows would be protected in the short term. The medium term picture is still bearish and it would be a sell on rise market anywhere close to 5700-5750 where the important weekly moving averages are placed. I would like to place a medium term target of 5350-5300 for nifty after this short term bounce. It was good to see nifty completing a 5 wave decline in the hourly chart and bouncing back from the falling wedge pattern.The 40 weekly moving average is placed just above 5750 and that is where the bounce back can stop but we could not see any long addition in nifty futures as of now.Thus if it is a gap up it is better to focus on stocks rather than the index and there would be lot of good stocks to play for this bounce. The top picks would be DLF and HDFC bank which can give a cumulative return of 20-25% from the current levels.If we get nifty close to 5500 it would be a decent buying opportunity with an immediate target of 5660 on the upside and a stop close to 5450.

Short term trend            Target                   Reversal 

     Up                         5725/5750               5450

Medium term

 Down                          5300                     5950-70

Nifty update for 05-April-2013

Nifty futures broke the previous low which indicates a major break down on the downside for 5400-5450 levels.Though bank nifty did not break the previous low the major index broke the so called 200 dma and continuing the H&S break down. 5400 put(May) is still available at 50-55 and this can be the cheapest investment that can be made during this volatile time. All the mentioned stocks like LIC housing, Allahabad bank and JP gave decent returns in the previous bounce and it is wise not to make fresh buying positions as the bounce back is over. IT sector is showing some major weakness and stocks like TCS , Wipro and HCL tech are the weakest among the pack. TCS could retest 1400 soon and among the banking stocks like Axis bank would be aiming at 1150 levels in the current series.After the recent correction TATA motors is one stock which could bounce back from the lows and it is currently trading close to 61.8% retracement zone at 255 levels. The stock could correct upto 235-240 in the down trending market but it is always good to watch this stock on bounce backs. Volatility data is showing short build up at higher levels and at 20 points premium nifty cannot bottom out. It has to come in a discount with panic selling in midcap stocks and that is how we call a bottom has been formed.On the upside 5760-70 would be the ceiling for the month and it would be a tough task for nifty to break out on the upside 

Nifty update for 01-05 April 2013

Nifty futures hit a new low on the day of expiry and was trading at a significant discount till after noon and as i said in the previous post it can most probably form a bottom whenever the index starts trading at a discount. The session was quite volatile and the index is expected to trade till 5800-5840 with a strong support close to 5550 zone. Most of the cash flow indicators were in the oversold territory and many stocks would continue the rebound in the coming week. There were no signs of bottoming out in many stocks but it is good to see that at least some of the stocks are waiting for a rebound. PSU banking space and metal stocks are were we could see lot of short positions and these are the sectors to focus on any rebound. Allahabad bank, JP associates and LIC housing would be the top pics for this rebound and i expect these stocks could give a cumulative return of 30-35% in the coming weeks. Banking index has broken from the Head and shoulders pattern on the downside and the pattern seems to be giving targets close to 10500 levels . Thus one has to be careful while choosing the stocks and concentrate on only 3-4 stocks and once you get the short term bottom never leave those until the bounce is completed.

Nifty update for 25-29 March 2013

Nifty might be consolidating in the mentioned range of 5550-5840 levels in the coming weeks and options writers could really make good use of the range. We could see a lower turnover day combined with a negative volatility index which shows squaring off short positions at lower levels. It opens up for a bounce from the current levels to 5800 levels within a week or two. The market itself is confused and the leading indicators like bank nifty and mid cap index are making new lows.There is a clear Head & Shoulders(a bearish chart pattern) break down evident in bank nifty which could make things worse for nifty to sustain any bounce. Bank nifty is most likely to break down to sub 11500 levels in the short term after spending some time in forming the neck line close to 12200. We could not see nifty in a discount till now and that is where we could say it has formed a temporary bottom. If we analyse the chart structure of nifty we could see that the up move started from 5550-5600 zone and there is nothing wrong in nifty retesting these zones. The European market charts like CAC, DAX and FTSE seem to be forming a double top than breaking out to new highs. For nifty 5800 - 5840 should be stiff resistance in the coming weeks too and stocks should witness mild pull back rally from current levels.The index is at the bottom of a trendline joining the previous low zones and many stocks are in oversold territory.

Short covering expected - Jindal steel,Sterlite,Andhra bank,Biocon

On the short side - Idea,Sbi (below previous low)

Nifty update for 21-March-2013

Nifty continued its downward move and is expected to give a bounce at any level below 5700. Lot many stocks have made new 52 week lows in the current downward move and it says lot more pain is left in the system. It might come to test the previous low zone but cover your short positions at any level below 5700 and wait for a bounce to 5790 - 5840 zone.The pain in the system can continue as lot many stocks have hit new 52 week lows in this process and it is not a good scenario for equity investors.As mentioned in the previous chart nifty would complete wave C between 5550-5680 zone and it would start moving up from there on. It can be a process and it is better to stay with high beta banking stocks like YES bank, Dena Bank and Allahabad bank during this consolidation phase. Bank nifty would be the one to support nifty's bounce back as it reached the support zone of 11200-11300 at a faster pace  than nifty and this can obviously be a leading indicator for nifty. I had mentioned a target of 300 for DLF in one of the previous posts and i was short of target by about 10 points as the stock reached a new high of 290 in the previous week. The stock is likely to top out close to 280-290 and it would be tough for the stock to surpass the previous high zone.As per the time cycle nifty is going through an important phase from 21-23 March and it can place an interim bottom during these days.