Nifty bounced back from the days low and it got close to the mentioned target of 5450. The bounce is expected to continue till 5720 levels which is the 50% retracement of the whole fall. Nifty made a low close to 5476 which is an important number and it has completed a short term price and time correction and thus we could see that the lows would be protected in the short term. The medium term picture is still bearish and it would be a sell on rise market anywhere close to 5700-5750 where the important weekly moving averages are placed. I would like to place a medium term target of 5350-5300 for nifty after this short term bounce. It was good to see nifty completing a 5 wave decline in the hourly chart and bouncing back from the falling wedge pattern.The 40 weekly moving average is placed just above 5750 and that is where the bounce back can stop but we could not see any long addition in nifty futures as of now.Thus if it is a gap up it is better to focus on stocks rather than the index and there would be lot of good stocks to play for this bounce. The top picks would be DLF and HDFC bank which can give a cumulative return of 20-25% from the current levels.If we get nifty close to 5500 it would be a decent buying opportunity with an immediate target of 5660 on the upside and a stop close to 5450.
Short term trend Target Reversal
Up 5725/5750 5450
Medium term
Down 5300 5950-70

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