Nifty update for 01-Aug-2012

Nifty held the range and RBI policy could give nothing special but a volatile session for nifty and banking stocks. One could see the 'climax of dead cat bounce ' of junk stocks like SBI and nifty would face resistance at 5250-5270 on the way ahead. These levels are crucial as nifty started its downward move from there. If we look at the turnover data it is evident that it is a liquidity driven market than fundamentals but bank nifty is not supporting the positive momentum especially in metal stocks. If nifty is able to cross the upside resistance the only hope for bulls would be the out performance of Reliance Industries. The stock has been consolidating in a range of 720-740 for quite a while and it is on the verge of a break out above 745 levels. As the consolidation is happening for the past three months it is wise to respect the time it has spend on the downside and the stock would be a decent bet than nifty for any upside move. On any upmove we could see a drop in the volume in nifty futures and i would continue to bet in the same range of 5140-5270 till bank nifty gives a break out on the upside. Volatility data is showing some short covering happened at lower levels and any downward move would be becacuse of fresh short positions and this could really move the volatility index on the upside.

( Chart  - Reliance industries )

A rise above 745 levels could take the stock to close to 800 levels. We could see a positive turn around in the volume and price pattern is telling that the consolidation phase is about to gt over. Any dip between 720-740 can be a buying opportunity for short term investors. As a trader i would like to keep 20 points as stop from the buying level.

Nifty update for 30-July-2012

Nifty gave a decent up move once it started trading above the immediate resistance zone of 5180 and it is expected to extend the rally to 5250-70 zone where one could start booking the long positions. The mentioned zone would be crucial as the down ward move started from here.If we consider the recent low around 5030 as the first wave on the downside nifty is coming up to some important fibonacci levels close to 5250-5270 to form wave 2 before the next leg down. As mentioned in the previous post bank nifty should be the major index to consider in the days to come and SBI could give a leading indication for further moves in nifty. We could see the 'dead cat bounce' in banking stocks and these wild moves are huge short covering but metal stocks are witnessing good buying at lower levels. On the downside 5130-5140 could act as the immediate support zone and the trading range can be 5140-5270 and use the upper to exit the longs instead of initiating new. 

Nifty weekly update for 30 July - 3 Aug 2012

(Chart 1- SBI, chart 2 - Nifty , chart 3- Nifty time cycles )

Nifty held the immediate psychological support zone of 5000 and gave a sharp bounce on the upside. The rally can continue to 5250-70 levels once it is able to cross 5180 on the upside before starting the next wave on the downside to 4950 levels. Thus 5180 should be considered as a short term reversal point on the upside and 5250-5270 would be the reversal points for the medium term.We could see nifty trimming the gains at the end of the trading session and PSU bank index was an under performer,it could affect the performance of bank nifty too in the coming days. We could not see any reversal patterns in bank nifty yet and for any consistent up move in nifty it is necessary for the banking index to perform. If we see the chart patterns we could see some similarity between SBI and Nifty which could be relevant in the coming days and we could watch the movement of the banking major as a leading signal for nifty's momentum as it gives a leading indication for nifty till now. Though US markets have given a new break out it can most probably be a test of the previous high and i am not expecting a major effect of that up move in the Indian equity market.

Time cycle.

As per the cyclical analysis 5th of August can be a short term trend deciding day and thus it should be watched carefully. On the upside 5250-70 can be a major resistance point and as per the cycle it could hold the levels at least 10-Aug-2012. On the downside we could see a decent support at 5030-5050 till the 06th of August.

Stock to watch 

1. Bata India  - The stock is forming a double top pattern with volume giving a complete break down and a break below previous low could take the stocks to 840 levels. 

Nifty update for 27-July-2012

Nifty broke the previous low and came all the way down to the mentioned level of 5050 and it is time to look for a bounce back buying opportunity. A bounce to 5130-5140 looks quite possible and it is expected to fall to 4950 levels after the bounce.The volatility index is giving a much bearish outlook for nifty in the coming months but stocks are giving attractive buying opportunities for investors. Stocks like TATA steel and TATA motors are close to the support zone and on any bounce backs these are the stocks to watch out for quick returns. As per the chart we could see a symmetrical triangle pattern in nifty (like to look at it as a distribution zone)which would take some time to form where the lower end lies around 4950 and upper end close to 5250 levels. For the month of August this can be the range for the market if nothing big comes from Europe. Bank nifty is giving a weak signal for Nifty to break any levels on the upside. Turnover data is showing unwinding of long positions in stocks and it is better to pick value stocks based on correlation with Nifty. I don't expect nifty to fall below 5000 without giving a bounce and would like to do some bottom fishing in TATA steel (stop below 380)and  stronger banking names like Indus ind bank. The fall is yet to be done and the world markets will trigger the downward move once Dow takes out 12400-12450 zone. In a nutshell the short term bounce is expected to 5130 levels and the medium term view remains bearish till 4950 zone. 

Nifty update for 26-July-2012

Nifty made a new low close to 5080 and gave a sharp bounce to 5120 which cannot be considered as a valid short covering rally. We could see all the major large cap stocks like TATA steel , SBI gave a negative close indicating some more downside left in the market after some sharp whipsaws. Volatility index is giving a negative close everyday indicating the upside would be capped for a much larger time frame than expected. The European debt crisis is getting dirty every day and it could have a significant impact on Indian markets too. Commodities like crude and copper could give us a leading indication for any crisis and one should carefully watch whether crude is able to stick on to the previous low. The rising dollar index would have a negative impact on equity markets as dollar is establishing its strength once again. We could see Dow holding on to the support zone of 12400-450 and break below this could make the situation a little more uncomfortable for equity traders. We could keep the same trading range of 5050-5170.

Nifty update for 25-July-2012

It was a quite day and we could see nifty holding 5100 zone but there no reason to think that would be the final low. The chart is telling us that it could find some support close to the next fibonacci zone close to 5050. The expiry season would give a little comfort to nifty in the coming days but the stocks are breaking down the support zones especially the weaker banking stocks like SBI and YES bank. On the upside 5170 would be a major hurdle to cross and i could not see enough premium in nifty to cross that level. We could see a negative close in the volatility index too making things more difficult for bulls as options premiums have become so cheap. Stocks like Voltas , Pantaloon, YES bank are expected to trade with a downward bias (below the previous low) , HCL tech and ACC are expected to trade with positive bias (above the previous high). Turnover data is showing some selling happening in the equity market from the institutional traders and retail participation has become very less during these days. The trading range can be 5050-5170

Nifty update for 24-July-2012

Nifty broke the support zone of 5170 and is heading to lower targets placed around 5050 zone. As i was repeatedly mentioning in the previous posts banking stocks would be better candidates to be on the short side than nifty itself. We could see some deeper cuts in the world markets and though Dow would be getting support close to 12400 it can eventually break that zone and head lower in the near term.The rise in dollar index would be another threat for world markets to rise further and the currency crisis could get dirty with the recent trouble in the US and European markets. As an investor one should be very particular about picking value stocks and one should sit on cash till a good opportunity arises.Nifty broke some of the major moving averages and this tells us nifty is still waiting for an accumulation pattern to move forward. If we have a look into the equity market turnover data heavy volume selling is not visible in large cap stocks and thus we could assume this as creation of new short positions in August futures. Volatility data is showing some short build up at higher levels and 5170-5180 would be a hurdle for nifty to cross and the downside levels are  opening up with sharp whipsaws. As the volatility is rising it is better to be an options buyer than being a writer. The trading range can be 5050-5170.

Stock to watch.

Ranbaxy - The stock is forming a head and shoulder pattern (considered to be a reversal pattern) by spending around 4 months on the upside. It got enough time for the distribution at higher levels and 8-10 % cut is visible if the stock starts trading below 475-480 levels and investors have to be really cautious at these  levels. 

Nifty weekly update for 23-27 July 2012

Nifty held the mentioned resistance zone of 5270 and headed lower till 5200 in the previous week. It might get support at lower levels close to 5160-5170 and it is advisable to get rid off some short positions close to the support zone.If we have a look at the indices we could see bank nifty giving the downward move led by the weaker ones like SBI. Nifty could hold on to the support zone of 5170 once more before breaking down  because of expiry and earnings season. As the volatility index is trading at year's low there is no case for being very bullish in nifty and it could spend some time in a range of 5000-5300 for a bigger time frame. A trader could use these deeper cuts to get into stocks like TATA motors (below 200) and TATA steel (with an avg price below 400). These large cap investments could turnout to be good in the long run as we are due for some major rallies after a month or two. A correction or a bigger range bound market is quite obvious before the beginning of a major rally and investors could use the deeper cuts to get into stocks. Bank nifty could see some more downside and SBI and Axis bank could lead the downward momentum . Though ICICI is holding strong to the upside levels the stock is trading close to the major resistance zone of 990-1000 in the weekly chart and i dont expect the stock to cross these levels easily. The trading range for nifty can be 5170 -5270 and a break below the support zone should be considered as a sign of weakness and it could lead nifty to 5050 in the short term.

Nifty update for 20-July-2012

Nifty held the mentioned upper range of 5270 and closed at 5250 levels. In the coming days i would like to assume that the secondary rally is almost coming to an end and we would be starting a new wave on the downside soon. If there is a downward move SBI could lead that and the stock has already shown its weakness on the charts. Volatility index has reached its lowest level in 2012 and this makes the scenario more complicated for bulls. Turnover data shows not much buying is happening at higher levels. July series may end in 5200-5300 zone but one could see lower levels in August series with these kind of distribution patterns. It is a little surprising that the private banking stocks are holding their highs but PSU banks are not supporting the market. If Nifty starts coming down TATA steel would be a good short term investment pick close to 360-400 range as it offers more value at this range. One can start accumulating the stock at current levels and buy more on dips close to 360-400 levels so that the average price would be below 400. Nifty's upside can be capped close to 5300 as we could see lot of call writing happening at that level.The trading range can be 5170-5270 and break of upper bands can be considered as exit points.

Nifty update for 19-July-2012

Nifty held the mentioned lower band of 5170 and gave a sharp bounce from those levels. We could see this as a short covering rally in the large cap stocks like SBI and L&T. As nifty held the lower channel the stocks could not break out from the low zone. Turn over and volatility data are showing some short covering than fresh long positions. Though we could see some long addition in nifty for 5260-5270 levels stocks are yet to see some amount of fresh buying. We could see some long liquidation happening at 5270 zone in the previous week and the zone has to be crossed to confirm the buying happened at 5170 -5180 zone. The weaker stocks like L&T and SBI did not come down as nifty held the range but i doubt whether this move is to make a new high or not. The weaker names like Jindal steel might continue the short covering rally but nifty looks like holding 5170-5180 and give a bounce to 5270 zone. The pattern looks like a range bound session in the days to come and 5200-5300 range is likely to hold in the coming days too. The trading range can be 5170-5270 and use the upper range break out to exit longs in nifty not to create new.

Nifty update for 18-July-2012

Nifty again gave a tight range bound session after hitting a high close to 5250. It is quite surprising to see that it is coming down every time just because of lack of buying and not short selling. Volatility index gave a negative close and we could see some short covering happening close to 5200 zone. It would be a rare instance where nifty coming down by 150 points from the top and the volatility index is close to the low. The scenario explains a no trade zone for nifty especially on the short side. As we have seen from the recent lows of 4770 bank nifty was leading nifty when there was an up move. Thus logically it has to lead the way down too and i think we are close to that zone. If we look at the chart of SBI a clear distribution zone can be seen at 2200-2250 zone any up move would just confirm the top.A break below previous low zone of 2160-70 could take the stock to at least 150 points down. As of now if nifty is going to go down(which i don't expect to be a heavy fall) a trader would get good opportunity to go short on stocks like SBI and L&T than nifty. If there is a short covering wait for the rally to be over and these would be break out trades on the downside. The turnover data is still in favor of bulls and it negative closing days are with low volume and it has to establish a top soon. Though it has not achieved the price target of 5400 + levels the time has completed its cycle of up move and i expect an expiry between 5200-5300 zone. The trading range can be 5170-5270.

Nifty update for 17-July-2012

After a negative weekly close nifty ended the session at the lower band of 5200 where one should be cautious with their short positions. It has got a runaway gap support close to 5180 and a major support close to 5090 levels and that could be the stop loss for positional long positions It is worth trying to buy the dips at this point with the mentioned stop as we are close to the lower end of the channel for a 70-80 points rise. I expect nifty to give a secondary rally before falling further.A buyer should only buy nifty from the perspective of a bounce back and a bearish island is already in place close to 5350 zone. One could see lot of options writing happening in 5300 calls and the mentioned support zone of 5270 was decisively broken on friday thus any buying positions below close to 5200 will have an immediate target of 5270 levels. Volatility index is showing some call writing happen on every rise and the tight range bound situation is still intact till july expiry. Institutional traders are still on the long side and in the options trades an upper band of 5300 is clearly visible. Nifty is expected to trade between 5170 - 5270.

Stocks to watch

1. L & T - the stocks has formed a double top pattern and is expected to trade lower till 1340 once it breaks the previous low. 

2. Cairn India - the stock is finding good accumulation pattern in the range of 310-317 and bigger move towards 335 region is expected once it is able to move beyond the previous days high. 

Nifty weekly update 16-20 July 2012

Nifty held the previous low zone of 5230 and gave a negative weekly close. It is looking like a dull market ahead of the earning season and is expected to be in the tight trading range of 5200-5400 till expiry. If we have a look into the weekly charts 5400 looks like a major hurdle to cross but on the downside we have decent support zones close to 5180-5200. This situation calls for a range bound market as stocks are not 

forming any kind of distribution pattern. The only way to trade a range bound market would be to buy near the support zones and sell close to resistance zones. The volatility and turnover data are in favor of bulls as we could see a negative close for the volatility index and the volume was very less indicating short covering happening at lower levels. The premium in nifty has not come down and it shows some buying is happening close to 5200 zone.I expect the range to continue in the coming days too with a buy on dips strategy. Stocks like Bata india and Bf utilities are expected to trade with a positive bias if the market rises close to 5300 levels.

Nifty update for 13-july-2012

Nifty broke the support zone of 5270 and headed lower till 5230 in the previous trading session. It broke the short term bullish scenario of higher top and higher bottom formation. As per the current structure it is respecting the bearish island of 5350 levels and would be a tough level to cross in the short term. We are close to an immediate support zone of 5200 and a bounce can be expected thus it is advisable to take off some profits if one is short below 5270 zone. The big gap up opening happened close to 5160-5180 and that would be a strong support area where lot of buying could happen. If we consider the world market charts Dow is close to the mentioned support zone of 12400 zone and S&P is forming a bearish flag kind of a pattern where we could see one more lower top before sliding down. Volatility index is showing some short built up in the system but the turnover data is telling that no huge volume is seen on the sell side. Institutional traders are still on the long side and we could see 5180-5200 support zone holding in the short term and 5300 levels would be a tough level on the upside to crack. The trading range can be 5200-5300.

Nifty update for 12-July-2012

Nifty could not extend yesterday's gain and today would be the first day where we could see some short built up in the system after a long time. I would see this only as a temporary arrangement to make the volatility index adjusted with the index moves. We have some crucial results on the 12th of July and we are close to the dates of topping out ie; 15-18th of July. Though there are some shorts in the system we could see some decent support emerging at lower levels close to 5270. As mentioned in the previous posts 5260-70 would be the stop for any long positions and even if it cracks below the buying zone nifty would defend any dip with the multiple support zones. It would take a dip and then come for a secondary rally to top out. Till now it seems to be a range bound session and momentum indicators have started showing some negative divergence but as long as it holds the support zones 5400+ levels are very much possible. It is yet to see how Infy results and IIP data would trigger the move tomorrow. The trading range can be 5260-5400.

Nifty update for 11-July-2012

Nifty is in its final leg of up move by getting decent support in the mentioned support zone of 5260-70 levels. It can trade higher till 5400+ levels but these are levels to exit the long positions and wait for the clear trend to emerge. We have some important Fibonacci numbers placed above 5400 zone and thus these are levels to look for creating short positions than longs. On the downside 5260-5270 is the zone where lot of buying has happened in the previous week and during the past 2 days too. Thus holding these levels would be very important for a short term trader and a dip below this could be seen as a short term reversal. Any gap up openings in the coming sessions would be seen only as 'exhaustion gaps' and these would occur only at the end of a short term rally. Volatility index is telling as lot of buying is happening close to the support zone but the turnover is decreasing. If we consider the world markets like Dow and S&P  they are close to their support zones. S&P is just holding a channel support line and dow has to go below 12400 for any downside risk. Dollar index is on its way up above 83 zone and this could trigger a rally in Dollar/ Inr too .

The trading range can be 5260-5400

Nifty update for 10-July-2012

Nifty held the resistance zone of 5350 and traded lower till 5260 -5270 zone where lot of buying has happened in the previous week. In the coming days this zone would act as the first support zone for short term traders. These moves could be seen as a consolidation process after a rally and it needs to give a secondary rally to form a top and the targets are still upto 5400+ levels till it gives a good reversal pattern. The profit booking sessions could extend to 5200 levels too and start of the result season could have a major impact on the short term moves in nifty. Volatility index is giving a positive close and the market breadth was also in the favor of declining counters. Thus it is showing a clear consolidation pattern and if nifty starts slipping below 5260-70 zone wait for a dip close to 5200 levels to be a buyer and as a positional player the downside reversal would happen only below 5090 levels.

Nifty update for 09-13 July 2012

Nifty tried to break out of the tight range but it is failing to do that on every attempt. I had been emphasizing on 17-18 levels in the volatility index where nifty would probably make a top and take a dip for the secondary rally. Thus 5350 -60 is the level where we could see the resistance of a bearish island from where nifty started heading down in the previous months. If we have a look into the turnover data we could see the market participants are very active supporting the strong positive momentum. In a nutshell nifty could see some  profit booking sessions to 5200 levels from where it could attract more buyers for a higher target of 5400+ levels. The volatility data is suggesting lot of buying is happening on every dip towards 5270 zone but the put options premiums are getting cheaper where that could also add some buying interest. Thus if a trader is long in the market the stop would be around 5260-5270 levels and it is not worth adding a fresh long position at 5330+ levels. A fair level to add long positions would be around 5180-5200 from where we could see a 'run away' gap (it represents a gap in the movement of the price where it would happen with huge volume. If the market is in a strong bull market we could see the higher end of the gap acting as a decent support zone). This would be one of the methods we could follow and see whether the market is following the positive momentum. 

Stocks to watch

BF utilities and Ahmednagar forgings

BF utitlities is on the verge of a six months break out with good volume and open interest. The stock seems to give 8-10 % on the upside and as a trader i would start adding the stock above the previous day's high and would like to accumulate on dips till 420 as a short term investment.
Ahmed nagar forgings is forming a rounding pattern and the pattern is getting formed over the past few months and is expected to give a sharp up move with 10-15% upside within a week or two. Thus it is worth taking a looking into these stocks if one is really looking for a short term investment .

Nifty update for 09-13 July 2012

Nifty tried to break out of the tight range but it is failing to do that on every attempt. I had been emphasizing on 17-18 levels in the volatility index where nifty would probably make a top and take a dip for the secondary rally. Thus 5350 -60 is the level where we could see the resistance of a bearish island from where nifty started heading down in the previous months. If we have a look into the turnover data we could see the market participants are very active supporting the strong positive momentum. In a nutshell nifty could see some  profit booking sessions to 5200 levels from where it could attract more buyers for a higher target of 5400+ levels. The volatility data is suggesting lot of buying is happening on every dip towards 5270 zone but the put options premiums are getting cheaper where that could also add some buying interest. Thus if a trader is long in the market the stop would be around 5260-5270 levels and it is not worth adding a fresh long position at 5330+ levels. A fair level to add long positions would be around 5180-5200 from where we could see a 'break away' gap (it represents a gap in the movement of the price where it would happen with huge volume. If the market is in a strong bull market we could see the upper end of the gap acting as a decent support zone). This would be one of the methods we could follow and see whether the market is following the positive momentum. 

Stocks to watch

BF utilities and Ahmednagar forgings

BF utitlities is on the verge of a six months break out with good volume and open interest. The stock seems to give 8-10 % on the upside and as a trader i would start adding the stock above the previous day's high and would like to accumulate on dips till 420 as a short term investment.
Ahmed nagar forgings is forming a rounding pattern and the pattern is getting formed over the past few months and is expected to give a sharp up move with 10-15% upside within a week or two. Thus it is worth taking a looking into these stocks if one is really looking for a short term investment .

Nifty update for 06-July-2012

Nifty broke out the narrow consolidation phase and made a new high close to the mentioned upper range of 5360. Though it broke out from the consolidation phase we could not see the positive momentum in major large cap stocks. The turnover data and the volatility data are still in favor of the bulls and we could see huge turnover in equity segment. Thus the traders are more interested in playing the stocks than nifty as the cash market volume shows that. On the downside 5270 can be considered to be the strong support zone and that is where lot of buying has happened in the previous days. No major divergence could be seen either in major stocks or nifty for a major downside move and the premium is showing that the rally is still intact. Small cap and midcap stocks are leading the rally and large cap stocks are relatively under performers. The moves are suggesting a topping out pattern to be formed soon close to 15-18th of July as nifty has to complete a secondary rally too to confirm the top. The trading range can be 5270 - 5400 and the upper range can be used to exit long positions .

Nifty update for 05-July-2012

It tried for a profit booking session but strong buying on dips is protecting nifty from any downside risk.Thus as of now 5270 has become a crucial support zone as lot of buying is happening close to that level. As the volatility index is giving a negative close with decent volume and open interest i assume long positions are getting created on any dip.The positive momentum in the market is still strong and a favorable market breadth is supporting that.As per the volatility index we are close to topping out but the chart says the date would be around 15-18 of July. Thus either the price has to achieve the target of 5470 or time has to mature without achieving the target. Options premiums have become so cheap so that volatility is expected to rise after nifty tops out and that would be the first signal to go short on nifty.The upside targets are still intact with a short term reversal only below 5090 level.If we have a look into the stocks we could see Axis bank and Canara bank are on the verge of a breakout and i would like to go for a bull spread in Axis bank. Canara bank would be more of a trading call for me for a 5-6% jump above the previous high.The trading range can be 5260-5360and it is advisable to reduce the buying positions in nifty when we are close to 5400.

Nifty update for 04-July-2012

Nifty gave one more range bound session but the turnover data and the market breadth is showing some positive momentum is still left in the system. These profit taking sessions are good for a market to build its base so that it could continue the up move till 5400+ levels. One important positive development that happened today would be the fall of dollar/ inr and it gave a break down below the support zones and it could take to 53 levels in the short term. The volatility index is close to the bottom and we could see the options premiums are getting cheaper and the scenario looks like a partial profit taking at 5350 levels and 5400+ levels would be the levels to completely exit the trading longs.Crude oil is again back in action with the positive momentum and thus as said in the previous posts this is not a time to take a fresh long position in nifty but to hold onto to your positions.Stocks are giving interesting moves on the upside and the market breadth is also in favor of a positive momentum. The trading range can be 5260 - 5360 and use the upper levels to book some profit and the upside moves will be extensions as we could see lot of options writing happening in 5400 calls.

Nifty update for 03-July-2012

Nifty gave a range bound session by holding the support zones but the upside momentum was evident in all the major names especially mid cap stocks. The advance/decline ratio was in favor of advancing stocks and thus nifty still has the momentum to reach the upside target of 5400+. The immediate support zone lies around 5200-5190 levels as the break out happened from this region. Dollar/INR gave a very positive move so as to support the positive sentiment in the equity market and it is yet to see whether it would break the crucial support zone of 55.30-.40. We could see lot of buying activity happening in some major mid cap stocks and IRB infra and BEML would be my personal favorites on the long side. Both these stocks are able to give 8-10% return within a months time. If market is giving a profit booking session that would be the appropriate time to invest in these stocks. Volatility data is showing buying is happening on every dip and good premium in nifty futures would be in favor of the bulls. Expect profit booking sessions in between this short bull run and it is better to reduce high beta names if the market starts going above 5350 zone. The trading range can be 5260-5360.

Nifty weekly update 02-06 July 2012

Nifty finally broke out from the range and reached the mentioned upside band of 5300 without much difficulty. As of now we could see 5090 as the short term bottom and any dip towards 5200 could attract lot of buying and the bias is still on the upside. The extended upside target could be around 5470 levels with a reversal below 5090 on a closing basis. On the upside Nifty could first move to 5350 where we could see some supply coming in as it tells you about some weekly resistance levels. Thus 5350 is the level where one could book take out some profit and wait for an entry levels close to 5200 -5180 levels. On the downside 5090 levels could be held as the options data is still favoring that zone.

The only worry could be volatility index could be close to 17-18 levels if nifty is going to hit above 5400 levels and one could see a bigger range bound market or a market with downward bias after that. As a nifty trader it makes sense to be on the long side of the market and buying on dips and allow nifty to make to make a top to going short in this market. In the commodities market too copper has given a good breakout on the upside indicating some more up move in metal stocks especially the ones like tata steel. Dollar/INR is close to an important support zone of 55.30-55.40 and it is yet to see whether it would break that zone or not.  At this point of time rather than going for nifty reaching 5470 levels read the volatility index levels to place the top and watch out for 17-18 levels as a major point where one should start exiting the trading longs