Nifty held the mentioned upper range of 5270 and closed at 5250 levels. In the coming days i would like to assume that the secondary rally is almost coming to an end and we would be starting a new wave on the downside soon. If there is a downward move SBI could lead that and the stock has already shown its weakness on the charts. Volatility index has reached its lowest level in 2012 and this makes the scenario more complicated for bulls. Turnover data shows not much buying is happening at higher levels. July series may end in 5200-5300 zone but one could see lower levels in August series with these kind of distribution patterns. It is a little surprising that the private banking stocks are holding their highs but PSU banks are not supporting the market. If Nifty starts coming down TATA steel would be a good short term investment pick close to 360-400 range as it offers more value at this range. One can start accumulating the stock at current levels and buy more on dips close to 360-400 levels so that the average price would be below 400. Nifty's upside can be capped close to 5300 as we could see lot of call writing happening at that level.The trading range can be 5170-5270 and break of upper bands can be considered as exit points.
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