Nifty did break yesterdays low but closed above the much talked about 200 day moving average. We could see sudden liquidation of March contracts but cost of carry and open interest figures shows some long build up in April series. The short term trend still remains down with the immediate down side levels lying around 5100-5070.As i said what ever be the downside it is better to wait for a buying opportunity than going short in this market. Among the front line stocks TATA steel is the one which looks attractive if the market is all set to rally towards 5250 zone. It never broke out from 440 levels and got some good time for accumulation as the short covering has already happened in the particular stock. If the market moves on the upside this could give a good move on the upside. On the weaker side we could see SBI and ICICI bank still waiting for a proper accumulation pattern. Volatility index shows a wider range of accumulation happening in nifty futures from 5100-5200 but the institutional figures was really disappointing, thus any rally on the upside could be a short covering rally led by banking stocks like Canara bank , HDFC etc. On the upside the immediate cap would be around 5250 levels where lot of short positions are built up.Dollar has almost reached the levels predicted in the first week of march(refer the post of 7th March).If we see the market cycle though nifty is very much inside the same range as that of 2010 bull run we could see the tops and bottoms coming exactly in the same time period. 2011 Jan marked a high , but we got a low in Jan 2012 . 2011 Feb and march got 2 immediate lows and we got 2 immediate highs in feb and march 2012 . Thus as per the same cycle we got a top in the first week of April 2011 and we are due for a rally in the first week of April. If nifty holds todays low i think it is worth taking a long call for an immediate rally. Lets wait for the market to unfold whether it is 5100 or 5250.
