Investment Pick 2 - Syndicate bank

                                                       Investors Corner 

The stock has been an under performer and did not perform well in the recent up move. If we need to bet on the banking sector we should possibly do it with a good risk - reward ratio . Buy the stock in a range of 64-68 for a target of 110+ within a year. The weightage  for this stock should be low as the high beta of the sector would fetch more returns if the sector performs well. Keep a stop of 60 on closing basis.

Investment pick - Mcleod Russel

Investors Corner

Mcleod Russel - One stock that helped me to identify the real bull market in India. It always lead nifty in an up move and the downward move too. The stock has completed a good retracement from the top and it expected to test 340-360 in a year . Buy above 265 stop of 240 on a closing basis. 

(I have started a new section called Investment corner from today onwards. Quit my job have started an advisory firm. This section is for those investors who were in touch with me through emails and over the phone who always told me to update regarding the investment ideas. Feel free to get in touch with me over email or phone for any fund management service (and not for intra day picks, as i am not the right one)

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Nifty update for 26 - Sep 2013 - 4 - Oct - 2013

Nifty was moving in an upward channel and is expected to trade till 5550-5600 in the short term with a reversal above 6150. The index has completed a 5 wave pattern on the upside and forming a Head and Shoulders pattern in the hourly charts and the 61.8% retracement is around 5550-5530 levels. The neckline is around 5820 levels and we could see the formation of right shoulder in process. If we see a correction it can be in an A-B-C pattern and thus it wont be a straight line fall. The world market charts are also supporting a downward move but in Indian markets it would be a retest of the bottoms for many stocks. Hang seng is trading close to upper channel and can possibly slip to 22k levels and i am expecting dollar to touch 64-65 levels once again after consolidating close to 61-61.5 levels. The low of 5820 levels made on 25th Sep 2013 is the key and we could see a good fall below these levels and 5500 put October would be the best options contract to be bought in this downward move.As the expiry is close by we could see options premiums coming down and thus we could buy put options at a cheaper rate. With those wild swings if it reaches 5950-6000 levels too the market does not look like the one to go long. If we look at the US SPXVIX it is trading at the lowest levels fro it could rise and a tired US market could be a catalyst for the down move in the Asian markets too.

Global Markets outlook

It has been a while that i have posted something about the global markets. As nifty is at a crucial juncture it is wise to have a look into other markets too. I have posted the charts of S&P and Hangseng which influences nifty a lot.Both these markets are in an uptrend and close to the previous tops. S&P could rally upto 1750 without much difficulty with a decent support close to 1650 and 1600 levels. These are good support zones from it got lot of buying interest.In a nutshell these are trend deciding levels for U S markets because it would be a lower top lower bottom formation below these zones.The CBOE VIX is not showing any major upmove so it can still hover around 13.5 - 16 for a month or so. Dollar index is ready for the upmove and that is the only worrying factor for equity markets all around the world.The reversal for Hangseng would be only below 22700 levels which is quite far as of now and these uptrends are intact as of now. Thus before shouting for sell calls in nifty lets have an understanding about the globe and one should be watchful for any reversal for these markets so that we can initiate sell signals too. As of now even if nifty corrects dont expect a major break down move and i expect it to correct only in an ABC pattern. The chartists say "As long as it is maintaining a higher top and higher bottom the trend is intact"

Nifty update for 18- Sep - 2013

Nifty tested the support zone once again close to 5820-25 and bounced back sharply from those lows.The volatility index ended on a negative note and the premium in nifty futures was moving at a steady level for past 2-3 trading sessions. It indicates people are still bullish on nifty and we could not see any major short buildup because of the mispriced put options. The options table shows decent amount of put writing happening at lower levels and even if it breaks on the downside a bounce back could be expected.On the upside traders got enough opportunity to write 6000 calls during the past 3-4 days and they have utilized it well thus 6000 can be the upper cap. In the daily charts nifty is forming a rising wedge pattern with a steep rise almost at 80 degree which gives some doubts regarding the amount of rise in prices.Thus as of now we could see a range bound scene in the coming days where i should not be a buyer on the break out highs and it could trap the buyers.If we analyse the previous two tops we could see that nifty marked a new high of an existing rally but started falling from the next day and this time also the scenario is almost similar. The good thing regarding this time would be stocks would get an opportunity to form a base or a double bottom where some accumulation could be seen, dollar could form a double top on any rise and so on. In a nutshell if you are an expert options trader these are days to sell options and in these kind of situations one should wait on the side lines to wait for a top to be formed and dont chase the market by buying the breakout highs.

Nifty update for 17 - 21 Sep 2013

Nifty is done with the mentioned upside level of 5850 and is completing a 5 wave pattern on the upside. A sell signal or an A-B-C correction can be expected in nifty futures below 5810 levels where i expect it to correct to 5600 levels.As of now it is wise to get out of trading longs as nifty is showing some kind of exhaustion which gives the sign of profit booking.If we look at the corresponding indices like bank nifty, mid cap and small cap indices we could not see any kind of break down and thus we should be expecting a range bound market with a negative bias below 5810 levels. It would be wise to buy 5700 put Sep if the futures trades below the mentioned support zone. It would be interesting if the premium in nifty reduces at these levels which can give some promising upside momentum but the premium is still on the higher side. Nifty has completed 78% retracement from 5100 levels and it decent range bound market gives an opportunity for many stocks to form a temporary bottom before the next upmove. Thus avoid the upside break outs as we could see lot of negative divergence in the market for any good up move. The volatility index is giving signals of fresh short positions at the top and 6000 calls have been getting written for the past 3-4 days 

Nifty update for 10-14 Sep 2013

Nifty continued its uptrend and achieved the mentioned upside target of 5650+levels and bank nifty is done with 10 k levels.The current up move is strong and ensuring participation from all sectors. Thus it would be wise to book some long positions as it is not advisable to trail the stop losses at this juncture. The reason for saying this is the  increase in premium in nifty futures represents institutional buying from 5570-5600 levels. Unfortunately retail traders are not convinced with the current rally and they are still holding the short positions as we could not see any reduction in the options premium. Any dip to 5570-5600 can attract and i would not advice any buying  at a fresh high close to 5800. Short sellers have to wait before initiating short positions as the market is giving a series of higher tops and higher top formations which is a bullish sign in the short term. Time cycles are also warning to square off the longs but don't initiate short positions at current levels. The upside target can be anywhere close to 5750-5850 where some major retracement zones are placed.Other indices like bank nifty, small cap and midcap are not showing any kind of exhaustion and it could attract more buyers at lower levels.(follow me on facebook for more updates regarding stocks https://www.facebook.com/Vinuniftytrends)

Nifty update for 05- Sep-2013

Nifty stopped at the mentioned level of 5300-5320 and should be considered as a major support zone in the coming days. It can be a trend deciding level and can be the trailing stop for all long positions. Though it is still a range bound market and all the bullish sentiments are sold into deeper dips in the market have to be bought. Nifty can move to next square of 5625 above 5476 on a closing basis as mathematically it can be regarded as crucial level. On the stocks front some of the banking stocks especially the one's like ICICI bank and Axis bank can be the worst performers in the coming months after the bounce. I am  expecting Axis to fall to sub 600 levels in the coming months as the private banking stocks have one more leg left before bottoming out just like nifty 

Nifty update for 02-06 Sep 2013

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Nifty gave a sharp reversal after making a new 52 week low with heavy volume and it indicates that it can move upto 5650+ levels with a decent support close to 5320-5300 zone. Bank nifty is a better candidate from the trading perspective as it is a fresh bullish flag break out above 9200 zone. Thus wait for bank nifty to break above 9200 zone for an immediate  of 10000. Expert options traders can sell puts as the market volatility is still at a peak. As it can be a bigger move buying out of the money options too would be a good strategy and better not play with futures. If nifty is not giving a decent consolidation or dip it is not worth buying for 5650 as it can only be treated as a counter trend move. One should be careful about U S market too as S&P can initiate fresh sell below 1625 zone. Thus on the buy side the volumes should be light and as of now bank nifty is the only one giving fresh buying signal above the mentioned zone.

(Though calls would be less here the face book page is active and readers can visit my face book page for more updates https://www.facebook.com/Vinuniftytrends)