Nifty update for 01-Aug - 09- Aug 2013

Nifty continued its downtrend and 5800 put has given 200% return from the date of posting. The index is expected to find decent support in 5650-5700 zone in the short term and a decent bounce to 5880-5900 can be seen.Apart from the wave theory time cycles are playing important roles this time and it is expected to settle down near the temporary top between aug 20-26 and till then we could see some bottom fishing close to the support zones. Any upmove from the current lows can be temporary and give it some time to settle down and go for some shopping. The long term uptrend is in danger as most of the stocks are close to their 52 week lows and index cannot show up as an out performer.Nifty is showing some bigger wave counts and we could see that nifty is probably making a Head and shoulder neckline formation close to 5700 zone and it could result in some immediate bounce backs.

Derivatives Update

Nifty futures shed some premium on the bounce back with a decrease in Open interest indicating some long positions got squared off by traders after the bounce back.Volatility index came down from the highs indicating 5700 strike put can act as a support zone in the near term.Unwinding of 5800 and 5900 put continued and we should see whether options writers would again get active on these strikes so that the market moves higher.Call writing could be seen even in 5700 and 5800 strike and it is evident that traders are expecting market to be in a range of 5700-5900 and they are just using the premium to write options for the current series. As per the options data 6000 can be the ceiling for the market in this expiry and short term bounce is expected till 5880-5900.

Nifty update 24-July - 2013

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Bank nifty heading towards 10000 levels in the month of August, clear negative correlation between midcap index, bank nifty and nifty. Buying 5800 put aug at 45 hold it with a stop at 20 ..for more updates one can log into my facebook page where i would update intraday

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Nifty update for 15-21 July 2013

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Nifty continued the upmove and done with the 61.8% retracement target of 5920-50 and trading higher above 6000 levels. It is expected to take support at the break away gap of 5890-5900 and trade higher till 6200 in the medium term. August too can be a positive month for nifty if world market reacts in favor. If we look at the chart structure nifty should not move at the current pace but lot of other indices like Banknifty, midcap and small cap index should outperform in the short term. Thus a pause in nifty is not ruled out as the advance decline ratio's have been poor and we should give some time for other indices to out perform. A negative dollar with a near term target of 58 can boost equity markets in a bigger way.If we look at S&P it is close to the previous top but i am not expecting a serious upmove here after and slightly negative for a target of 1600 or lower in the near term. The maximum upside can be 1690-1700 where it should make distribution patterns and lower volumes are saying this. In the stocks front 5-6 stocks can out perform nifty in the near term.The volatility data shows that buying is happening at lower levels as traders have missed so many gap up openings and looking at dips to accumulate. Thus i am expecting other indices like midcap and small cap space to out perform nifty in the short term.

Canara Bank - Looks like a head and shoulders base formation .Wait till 40 days moving average to be taken out which is placed around 360 keep a stop at 352 for a target of 380-385.

Coal India - Stock is trading above 20 & 40 days moving average, momentum indicators are positive long above 303 stop at 296. Look for a target of 325 in the short term.

DLF - No major accumulation has taken place but the momentum is in favor and a falling trendline break out on the upside is visible . Would like to be a buyer around 180 and stop would be around 175 like to place a target of 195 in the short term.

Exide - The favorite among all . A rounding bottom formation , positive momentum with decent volumes looks like 118 is the stop for a target of 135 +

Jindal steel - A high momentum stock , tired of falling, looking at a target of 240+ in the short term 213 can be the stop