Nifty update for 30-Jan-2013

Nifty struggled to cross 6100 once again and is expected to trade till 5900 in the short term with a reversal above 6150. Volatility index is showing some profit booking at higher levels and short positions are yet to be created in nifty. Though nifty tried to cross 6100 on the back of some news flow it failed to sustain the momentum and many of the large cap names are coming into the sell list today. Institutional traders have already pumped in so much of money into the market and i personally don't feel the momentum to continue in the same manner in the coming months. It would tough for the large cap names like SBI, Financial tech , PNB and Bank of Baroda, HDFC bank to reclaim the previous highs.A meaningful correction is always better than to have a bubble.YES bank is another major leading stock which is facing huge resistance at higher level and is expected to correct till 495-500 in the short term. As mentioned in the previous posts any levels close to 6100 would be considered as an opportunity to exit and poor advance/decline ratio is  proving that.Dollar index is holding the support zone and is expected to rally till 81 in the short term and the condition would be bearish for nifty because of the negative correlation between the two.

Nifty update for 28-Jan-2013

Nifty struggled to cross 6100 in the previous week and is expected to complete the correction till 5900 in the short term. There would be lot of thing to consider while nifty is at a crucial juncture close to 6100. The volatility index has started rising ahead of the RBI policy and would continue to rise till the event and i would not expect a major breakout of the current range before the event. In the hourly chart nifty has completed a 5 wave pattern and waiting for A-B-C waves in the shorter term. Turnover data is still strong with huge FII turnover and it is evident that they have already accumulated huge positions in cash market and waiting for retailers to get in so that they could take out some money from the market. Quite surprisingly retail traders have not shown any interest in the market till now and this is really slowing the momentum in the short term.All the other indices are showing significant correction and nifty is consolidating not considering the major market and this is not a signal of matured market. Thus wait for the range breakout for creating any fresh positions and it is better to lighten the position on the upside if any rally comes above 6100 levels. Nifty cannot create huge selling opportunities as the premium is still very low and it shows that it is not topping out at this point of time. Two stocks to watch would be Axis bank and HDFC bank.HDFC bank has given a bullish break out in the hourly chart above 665 levels and is expected to touch 695- 700 in the short term above the previous high. Axis bank is showing some negative momentum and giving lower top lower bottom patterns in the hourly charts. It would confirm a decent break down below the previous low.

Nifty update for 21-Jan-2013

Nifty had a range bound session , is facing resistance around 6080-6100 levels and is expected to trade till 5900 in the short term.It made a top close to 6100 twice but the advance/decline ratio in these two days were in favor of declining counters and bank nifty is not giving a proportionate move along with the main index. The immediate  effect would be a range bound session as the momentum is so strong and lot many long positions are getting squared off instead of fresh short positions.Volatility index is showing some short build up at higher levels as the premiums have come down too. Turnover data is still strong and it has not started weakness in the equity segment. Thus if you are put buyer the buying should happen close to 6100 or any rise and that too in March options as the premiums are still low.In the stocks front Biocon, Zee are showing slow momentum and are expected to trade lower below previous low. On any upmove stocks like IDFC and Cipla are expected to trade higher. Dollar/INR is expected to trade till 53 in the short term as the daily charts have given a decent break down.

Nifty update for 18-Jan-2013

Nifty is facing stiff resistance close to 6060-6100 and is expected to trade till 5900 in the short term.  Lot many stocks are facing resistance at higher levels and auto sector stocks like M&M and TATA motors are expected to correct in the short term.In the hourly chart nifty is in its 5th wave and might give some extensions on the upside but use these extensions to exit the long positions and not to create new. It wont be an immediate sell as the premium in nifty futures is not at the peak and it is evident that not many are trapped on the upside. Thus it wont top out in one stretch and give some range bound sessions in the near term. As a nifty trader one should wait for the right moment to go short and not now. Volatility data is showing some long unwinding instead of short positions thus we should first book some long positions and wait for a decent break down to be on the short side.As a trader i would not like to hold onto stocks like BATA India and HULas they have already given breakdowns and wait for a decent correction in banking and metal stocks to be on the long side 

Nifty update for 14-Jan-2012

As said in the previous post nifty faced a stiff resistance close to 6050 levels and is expected to trade till 5920-5900 in the short term. Bank nifty looks more vulnerable for a correction than nifty and banking stocks would face some more negative surprises in the coming week. It would be a correction ahead of RBI policy and wait for decent corrections to be a buyer. Indus ind bank and HDFC bank would be top picks after the correction. 12300/350 would offer a decent support zone for bank nifty. IT stocks are giving good trading opportunities and it is wise to create long positions in midcap IT names like Polaris and Hexaware for 8-10% return in the short term. On the sell side Bajaj finserv, IRB infra and BATA india are expected to move down below the previous low.It would not be wise to create sell positions in nifty but banknifty and these stocks are offering some decent trades on the sell side. In the hourly chart nifty has completed a 5 wave pattern and it would complete the A-B-C pattern some where close to 5800-5900 in 2013 and expected to retest the previous high of 6350 close to March - April. It is better to be an investor in corrections especially in metal stocks as that is the one sector that is yet to perform. These corrections are good buying opportunities as in the daily chart we are still in the 3rd wave and it cannot be the shortest in any case and thus chances of nifty moving to 6350 would be higher in 2013. 

Stock for an investor.

Rolta - The stock is completing a triangle formation and is expected to break out to 90 zone in the medium term. Buy in small quantities and add more above 70-71 there can be a range bound sessions close to these levels and there is a channel break out above these resistance levels. The stock is getting accumulated in good volumes and this can be a very good positive factor the stock in the long term. It might take some time to breakout above 90-95 zone as it has to form some higher tops ahead of a bull market, but wait patiently for decent returns close 100-150% in a years time. The face value of the stock is Rs.10 and the dividend is Rs.3/ year (as of now).Thus it is worth an investment from the fundamental point of view too as the stock is quoting decent EPS and a rise through out the years.

Nifty update for 08-Jan-2013

Nifty futures is facing stiff resistance close to 6050-6060 levels and would confirm a 5 wave cycle on the upside below 6010 levels. Thus 6010 can be considered as a reversal point in the short term and would initiate the first sell trigger in nifty.As i had already mentioned in the previous posts though nifty is still short of the medium term target by around 60-70 points time cycles are warning a small correction. It can't be a major top as we have still lot more to go on the upside as the momentum was sharp till now. Some of the major stocks have started signs of reversal . L&T and Axis bank are two major stocks which are showing some downside targets on the way ahead. JP also gave a sell signal in the hourly charts and a reduction in nifty premium would be worrisome at this juncture. It can most probably lead to a range bound session with a downward bias as lot of buying might happen on any dip. L&T and Axis bank can test 1550 and 1340 in the short term below previous low

Nifty update for 07-Jan-2012

First of all it is good to be back after a short break.
Well, not any dramatic change in the structure of nifty and other related stocks. We have reached an important time cycle as the first or second week of January is famous for placing major tops as far as indices are concerned.The volatility index is trading close to its lowest levels and it is time to be cautious and would be wise to take off some money from those stocks which have positive correlation with nifty. There could be a short term rally in banking and housing finance stocks ahead of the RBI policy but bet on those with lower volumes. As the index is close to our medium term target of 6150 it is wise not to enter into fresh longs but one can still hold on to some specific names.All the major banking names and stocks like L&T are in a middle of the rally and no signs of reversals are seen in these names but bet on those names which haven't performed till now. I would be positive on stocks like HUL, HCL tech , ABAN etc. These stocks were under performers when the whole market was rallying and it is time to shift the focus to these ones than the famous names. In a bull market an intelligent trader would make use of the major part of the rally and use the corrections to fill the portfolio with under performers. Logically a bull market would last more than a bear market and we will have some more time to accumulate decent stocks but if you got stocks close to bottoms don't leave those.