Nifty update for 30th September 2011

Nifty held our support level of 4900 and gave a good rally that too on an expiry. As i mentioned in the previous post though 5000 call writers tried to resist, Nifty could surpass them. It would tell as something about the amount of short positions people had and short covering triggered that upmove. Today's move was with good volume and it could be very much possible that people just started buying the next month futures.It is still a range bound market and today also it held the lower part of our range of 5030-5060 and it would be interesting to watch out that range would be taken out on the upside.If it takes out that level nifty could rally a bit more and lets wait for our dates of 3-4 of October whether it could form a top.5030 levels would be important as it would be closer to an important Fibonacci number.If you observe these two days there is a kind of positive up move in terms of accumulation in Nifty futures. It would be just be a warning signal for the bears and watch out 4900 as an important level.

Dollar index crossing 79 levels would be a major threat for Nifty to go up.The Dollar index chart shows a cooling off period before the next up move .