3rd October - If Nifty breaks down below 4900 it has to happen on Monday and it could get support at 4820-4860 levels.
4th & 5th of October - It could be another day of fall and Nifty would retest the previous low zone of 4720-4750
6th - Trading holiday
7th - This would be a crucial date as we should see whether nifty retest the low of 4720 and bounce back or crack to 4600 levels.
Any bounce back from 4800 levels would face a resistance zone of 4950-70 levels
Scenario Two: Nifty forms a bottom at 4900 and move upwards
3rd October: it would try to cross 4970 and 5030 would remain as a hurdle
4 & 5 th - If it could breach 5030 levels Nifty could move towards 5110 levels.
7th would be a range bound session , a decision making day for nifty whether to cross upside levels.
It is a market that favors options writers because of two reasons.
As the volatility levels are at a very higher range they wont leave the extra premium that is available and as the range is clearly mentioned as 4900 - 5050 they could successfully write out of the money options.In a nut shell the shorter range range remains at 4900 - 5030 and a larger range remains at 4600 - 5100. The 500 point range would tell you the expected volatility in the market. Any bounce back of 100 points during 4700-4800 range would postpone the chance of 4600 levels to another week. The best thing to do is once the shorter range is broken react to those conditions and it could most probably give a an 80-100 points move
Disclaimer: The Calls made herein are for informational purpose and cannot be considered as recommendations to any person to buy or sell any securities. The above calls are based on the theory of technical analysis. The author does not accept any responsibility for the use of this column. Readers of this column those who buy or sell securities based on the information in this column are solely responsible for their actions
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