Nifty update for 22nd March 2012

Nifty did it again by holding the support zones close to 5250. One could see the mentioned stocks BATA India and YES bank trading higher through out the day. In the end of February itself a rally on the 21^st of March 2012 was mentioned(read posts of 9th March and 27 feb weekly posts). I would like to take it as an exit point from any long positions and play the rally from an intra day basis. As the bottom is formed by spending some time on the downside there can be a little more upside but any upside from the current levels should be used for exiting the long positions.I would like to start my fresh short term investments only above 5550 levels. Nifty futures could be in a trading range till the first week of April and if there is any more major rally on the upside that could be during April 1-10. It has created a good trading range of 5200-5500 and one could catch the top or bottom to trade this range. If you are not an options player as long as this range continues one could focus on specific stocks and let nifty give a meaningful break out on the upside. It could revisit the levels of 5200 for confirming the base but as I have already stated waiting for good buying opportunities than going short. Volatility index was suggesting us lots of buying is happening on the dip as it has not closed in the positive zone for quite a few days and the premium in nifty did rise to more than 20. (If you were reading the blog regularly one could see all these relevant details were covered in the past few days.)In the commodities market copper might take a pause before further rally and Indian equity market has to really worry about the upswing in crude. Volume in nifty was quite decent but surprisingly dollar too gave a positive closing indicating it as a mere short covering rally in stock futures. Nifty futures came up due to strong buying and not because of short covering because traders did not square off the short positions as these are lying at much higher levels close to 5470-5500.Thus lets keep a range of 5330-5440