We had an eventful week and the street gave a thumbs down to the budget.Nifty futures did hit our downside target of 5330 and closed just above that. It is obviously a weak closing if we consider the daily charts but if we see the weekly chart the structure still looks strong on the upside.As i said in the previous posts it could most probably make a trading range within 5180-5500.We have some important dates coming around 20-22nd of March and the first week of April.If we observe the market cycle of the past years we could see a range bound market till the first week of April and a rally is possible after this short period of range bound session.We could see heavy options writing in the past week and the volatility index came down by 10% on Friday. It is an indication that buying happen at the lower end of the range.Volumes were good and the turnover data shows some heavy selling is happening on the upside. Thus i would not expect a short covering rally because the shorts are placed at 5470-5530 range.Any upside should be treated as buying emerging at lower levels and not short covering. Banking stocks are looking much weaker than any other sector especially the banking biggie SBI. It had a disappointing session on Friday and clearly says it is lagging the corresponding index.In the commodities market copper registered a new high above 435 and it should be considered as very good sign for further upmove. We should closely watch the base metals and dollar index for any major reversal in Nifty. I would be waiting to be a buy a deeper cut on the downside and we could keep 5180 - 5470 as the major range for the week.
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