Nifty weekly update 16-20 April 2012

(Please go through the charts after reading the post as it would give a much more clear picture)
The week ahead would be a tough one for the bulls to establish their mark on the upside. Nifty tried its best to overcome the challenges but it got resisted at our upper band of 5330 as mentioned in the previous post. In the shorter term we can clearly see a lower top lower bottom formation ad short term trend still remain bearish or with an optimistic note we can say a bigger range bound market with a negative bias.The major worry would be copper making lower lows and apart from one short covering rally it is a huge sell off even at lower levels.As i kept on repeating the relevance of base metals in the equity market it once again gave a leading signal before the sell off in Indian equity. The sell off was clearly due to short selling as it resulted in a positive volatility index with a reduction in premium and rise in open interest.On the upside 5330 still remains a key level to watch for as lot of short positions are lying there. Lets keep a range of 5100 - 5270.
Decoding the chart !!! 
 As you can see in the first chart nifty is likely to be in a range of 5040 - 5300 with a considerable amount of resistance at 5400. Thus the only hope for nifty would be a very favorable policy from RBI and otherwise i dont expect it to cross before 24th of April. On the downside if it breaks down there can be a short covering rally close to 5040 - 5050 levels and thus it can possibly make a trading range of 5040 - 5300 and in a nutshell the chances are less for an expiry close to 5400.
Second chart - Some of the important dates are mentioned in this chart .As per this chart we had a prediction made in the final week of feb 2012 that a rally would be there close to the first week of April. We had a rally from 5130 - 5400 levels in the first week of April.If we observe the chart we can see that nifty made a low before every rally in an interval of 90-99 days and the major trend line angle acted as a support zone for all rallies. When ever this angle is breached we could see a huge sell off as you can see in the chart. Thus if the low is breached the maximum level of one leg of fall can be till 4950 levels as lot of Fibonacci  levels are getting merged there. If it has to happen i would expect that in the month of May and in the final week of April . As of now the bull market is intact and we should wait for good buying opportunities from the downside thus lets wait and watch the game in the coming week.
Third chart - Major support zones as per Fibonacci numbers.