Nifty made a high close to 5200
and fell to 5030 level after the RBI policy. It is expected to take support at
5020 – 5030 levels and give a small bounce to 5100 levels before any crash. It
is still maintaining a tight range giving false breakouts on the upside. Thus
the only way to be a buyer should be to buy the support zones and test the
previous swing lows as your stops are close by. The short term trend is still
intact but it is yet to see how the market would react to the negative news
flows. 5020-5030 is a decent support zone and it is better to close all the
long positions if nifty starts trading below this and wait for a decent entry
level. As mentioned in the previous post we could see a sharp fall in the
options premium as the positions have already been made by options writers
ahead of the big event. We could not see any accumulation pattern as of now and
it might take some more time to give a smart rally on the upside and it is a
stock pickers market rather than playing in nifty. If we have a look into the
stocks we could see some smart moves by stocks like TATA steel and ABAN even in
a falling market. One shocker for market would be Dollar/ INR holding the
support zone of 55.30-55.40 and coming to 56 zones once again. Though dollar
index and copper have given signs of reversals this would be a head ache for
the market in the coming days. The trading range can be 5020 – 5110 and
consider a fall below the lower band as a break down.
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