Sunday, October 28, 2012

Nifty weekly update for 29 Oct - 2 Nov 2012



Nifty held 5700 once again but expected to trade till 5530-5560 zone with a reversal above 5740 levels. The correction would be slow and painful and i would expect the corrective phase to continue till 5-10 of November and resume the uptrend after that. There are chances for an immediate bounce as the world markets are close to the support zones. As the market is in a tight range it is always advisable to take a trade close to the upper and lower end of the trading range thus buying puts close to 5730-40 levels would give us a decent trading opportunity. Though the market is in a corrective its relative outperformance with the world markets are really encouraging and a dip towards 5530-60 levels should be taken only as a retracement from the top and that is quite normal in every market. The medium term target of 6150 is still valid as the market is still maintaining a higher top higher bottom scenario and the reversal should happen only below 5450-5500 levels. I have taken a negative view in the short term mainly because of the way stocks are performing in a market like this.In a range bound which is ready to go up would never show a distribution pattern like this. If we look at stocks like SBI, Reliance capital, BATA India and Reliance Infra the distribution pattern is very evident and this is affecting the private banking space which is a relative out performer.Reliance Infra is a new addition to list of stocks which are breaking the support zones and the stock is expected to touch 470-465 soon if nifty is stuck in a range.Volatility data is showing some short covering happened during the last hours of the trade and it could help for an immediate rebound but the distribution pattern is still active is most of the major large cap names.The short term range can be 5670 - 5740.

No comments:

Post a Comment